Count	Frequency	Zone	Out of Zone	Strike odds	Ball odds	Strike overall odds	Ball overall odds
0-0	1.000	95745	89033	.518	.482	.518	.482
0-1	.518	39460	53598	.424	.576	.220	.298
0-2	.220	14985	33022	.312	.688	.069	.151
1-0	.482	37702	33833	.527	.473	.254	.228
1-1	.552	35402	38838	.477	.523	.263	.289
1-2	.415	25414	44600	.363	.637	.150	.264
2-0	.228	13872	10640	.566	.434	.129	.099
2-1	.418	21098	17739	.543	.457	.227	.191
2-2	.491	37457	33526	.528	.472	.259	.232
3-0	.099	4573	2930	.609	.391	.060	.039
3-1	.251	9652	6289	.605	.395	.152	.099
3-2	.384	21163	16146	.567	.433	.218	.166

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-mlb-teams-might-start-changing-how-they-value-high-contact-hitters/
Is a high-average renaissance coming in baseball? By Matt Snyder
"Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game" was published in 2003. Michael Lewis' book was then turned into a movie that was released in 2011. And yet, in 2021, there are still so many people out there with the misconception that playing "Moneyball" was about a specific stat ("Moneyball is on-base percentage!" the ignorant will cry out) or even some sort of "sabermetrics" revolution to make people hate the stats they long held near and dear in favor of "newfangled" stuff.
I'll pause for laughter.
No, it's actually about finding market inefficiencies. That is, what skillsets are other teams undervaluing and how can we acquire players -- mostly cheaply -- to exploit this for our gain. There have been several iterations since the initial movement from average to OBP and slugging. Defense is certainly up there, a combination of shifting/positioning and getting undervalued defensive players. Things have obviously been done on the pitching side, such as shortening the game with super bullpens and using openers, among other things.
In light of where things are headed right now in baseball, I'm wondering if we're coming full circle very soon with what type of hitter is undervalued.
That is to say, while the initial "Moneyball" movement set baseball on a path, where average was less important than the other two main rate stats (meaning more emphasis was put on drawing walks -- and, in related matters, working deep counts -- and hitting for power). In the process, we have seen a great shift toward the so-called Three True Outcomes (home runs, walks, strikeouts).
As a result, who got left a bit behind? The high-average, high-contact hitters, possibly with low power.
I said I'm wondering if we're about to come full circle because not only do I believe there's a chance at a market inefficiency in there, I also think the forces of the game are swinging toward this type of hitter being undervalued.
Strikeouts continue to rise. More and more, it seems like whichever team each game hits "the big home run" is the one that goes on to win. Here are the lowest batting averages in MLB since World War I:
1968: .237 1967: .242 1972: .244 2020: .245 If we're wondering about the small sample or want to blame the pandemic, the 2019 average was .252 and the league hit .248 in 2018.
If some of those years above jumped out, it's for good reason. After 1967-68, the pitcher's mound was lowered. After 1972, the American League added the DH.
Meanwhile, in 2020, strikeouts per team game actually dropped -- to the second-most all-time -- from 2019, but 2020 marked the first year it wasn't a new strikeouts per game record since 2007.
It's gotten to the point that it isn't just a small subset fans or curmudgeon broadcasters whining. Many baseball fans acknowledge the game needs more on-field action. At this point, pretty open-minded and even-keel people are discussing that something has to change. Home runs are great. Walks were far too long an underappreciated part of the game. Big strikeouts are excellent to watch. It's just that we should have more than those things along with groundballs and fly balls going right at nearly perfectly positioned defenders.
On one hand, the pitchers and defense are very good. On another, maybe the shift in philosophy left too many different types of hitters behind. Maybe things should tilt back a bit the other way?
After stepping down from his perch as Cubs president, Theo Epstein took a job with the commissioner's office and said something along these lines (emphasis mine).
"As the game evolves, we all have an interest in ensuring the changes we see on the field make the game as entertaining and action-packed as possible for the fans, while preserving all that makes baseball so special. I look forward to working with interested parties throughout the industry to help us collectively navigate toward the very best version of our game."
He had recently sort of lamented his own role in shaping the game, too. Via The Athletic:
"There are some threats to it because of the way the game is evolving," Epstein said. "I take some responsibility for that. Executives like me who have spent a lot of time using analytics and other measures to try to optimize individual and team performance have unwittingly had a negative impact on the aesthetic value of the game and the entertainment value of the game in some respects."
The hunch here is Epstein will have commissioner Rob Manfred's ear pretty strongly in the next few years. We've also already seen Manfred discussing things like either banning or limiting the shift along with something to curtail strikeouts, such as lowering and/or moving back the mound.
Zeroing in on the possibility of shifts going away, and low-strikeout guys become even more valuable. It doesn't take an Epstein-savvy front office member to figure out the chances of finding a hole without the defense perfectly crafted to a spray chart increase.
Further, after seeing so many strikeouts in huge spots with runners on base over the past several years, I can't help but think that even if a hitter that sits something like .230/.340/.500 can be valuable, evening that out with a high-average contact hitter to keep the line moving at times would be beneficial in creating a more well-rounded lineup.
The poster boy here is D.J. LeMahieu. Believe it or not, Epstein actually inherited him with the Cubs, but traded him away his first offseason with Tyler Colvin for Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers. Stewart looked like the high-walk, high-power guy teams coveted at the time (important update: He wasn't). Despite winning a batting title, winning three Gold Gloves and making two All-Star teams, LeMahieu only got a two-year, $24 million deal with the Yankees after the 2018 season as mostly an afterthought in a huge offseason. He went on to finish fourth in AL MVP voting. Then he finished third last season, leading the majors with a .364 average while also pacing the AL in OBP, OPS and OPS+.
Finally heavily sought after, LeMahieu got six years and $90 million to stay with the Yankees this offseason. Yes, he's developed his power, but he only struck out 90 times in 655 plate appearances in 2019 and 21 times in 195 plate appearances in 2020.
With everything conspiring in this direction anyway, I think LeMahieu is starting a wave.
Here are some others (in a non-exhaustive list) who could become increasingly valuable moving forward into the next decade of baseball evolution.
Tommy La Stella - A broken leg cost La Stella half the 2019 season in what looked like his career year. He already had 16 homers, yet had still only struck out 28 times in 321 plate appearances. Last year, he had the lowest strikeout percentage in baseball while hitting .281 with a .370 OBP.
Ketel Marte - Pay too much attention to the loss of power in just 45 games last year at your peril. He still hit .287 and was tough to strikeout. I'm not expecting a full bounce-back to MVP-caliber levels of 2019, but his bat-on-ball skills have pretty steadily improved for five years straight.
David Fletcher - He's improved all three years in all three rate stats and sports a career .292 average with just 123 strikeouts in 1,190 plate appearances. He also ranks near the very bottom of the league in stuff like barrel percentage, exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. Sending some conventional 2019 people running for the hills is a good trait for someone to have when looking for market inefficiency, right?
Jeff McNeil - Why pick between McNeil and a Pete Alonso type when you have both? McNeil in 248 career games is a .319 hitter with only 123 strikeouts in 1,024 plate appearances. Like Fletcher, his "batted ball profile" leaves a lot to be desired, too.
Trea Turner - We've seen former Turner teammates Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon strike it very rich in free agency while his current teammate Juan Soto rightfully will garner a ton more attention here in the short term. Just don't forget about Trea. His strikeout percentages aren't excessive -- remember, as a leadoff man he takes tons of plate appearances -- and he's a career .296 hitter. He makes consistent contact, has some power and can fly.
Kevin Newman - Newman had a dreadful 2020 season, but it was only 45 games in the middle of a pandemic. I'm not going to harp on that when we've got 130 games of a .308 hitter in 2019 who only struck out 62 times in 531 plate appearances. Don't sleep on him.
Jean Segura - Segura became a different hitter in 2020. His strikeout percentage jumped from 11.8 to 20.7. Along with it went his previously high average. But he walked a lot more and his OBP went up. It was weird. Regardless, keep in mind what a fluky season 2020 was. Segura was in the top five percent of toughest hitters to strikeout in 2018 and 2019 while topping a .300 average 2016-18. He's 30. I have faith in him being productive with a good average and lower strikeout rate in 2021. And hey, maybe he'll even keep walking. I never said it was bad.
Jake Cronenworth - As a rookie last year, Cronenworth put together a season in which he would've struck out around 90 times in a full year while hitting .285. His minor-league and amateur profile has long shown someone with good contact skills capable of a higher average. He was never a top-100 prospect in the minors, but he now heads into territory where he can have an impact simply by being differently valuable than the 2010s prototype.
To be clear, this premise isn't even remotely saying teams should load up on only these types of players. The best lineups are the most well-rounded. Get you a few of these types to pair with some big boppers and things would be looking pretty damn nice. The conditions are ripe for a bit of a sea change in how hitters are valued in these next few years. Watch LeMahieu, La Stella and company for a guide while someone like Cronenworth carries the torch to the next generation.

Better Know the Ones Left Off the Ballot #22: Corey Hart

Well that was disappointing. I'm still here, though, because there are too many good stories I haven't gotten to yet. For all y'all that aren't so familiar with what's going on here, the Selection Committee that puts together the list of players on the ballot have to trim it down quite a bit, since there's a whole lot of people who technically qualify but aren't deemed noteworthy enough to get recognized with a placement on the ballot. Here, we look at the ones left behind. There are a lot more of these at the bottom, so check those out if you're into that sort of thing. To the main attraction.

Corey Hart

Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor: 16
Career bWAR (11 years): 14.4
Stats: .271/.329/.478, 112 OPS+, 1009 H, 162 HR, 416 XBH, 538 RBI, 549 R
League Leading Stats: Games as RF (156, 2008)
Awards: All-Star 2x (2008, 2010)
Teams Played For: Brewers (2004-12), Mariners (2014), Pirates (2015)
Corey Hart is a Canadian singer-songwriter. He has released two Gold Records and one Platinum Record, and nine of his singles have reached the American Top 40. He also shares a name with a former Brewers right fielder. That Corey Hart was a two-time All-Star and one-time Home Run Derby contestant, got over a thousand hits, had a career OPS above .800, and yet I can still only think of him as the "Sunglasses at Night" guy. Neither Corey Hart the singer nor Corey Hart the baseball player are on the Hall of Fame ballot this year, though only one of them qualified for it. The other released nine studio albums and six compilation records. I hope I don't confuse the two.
Hart's career began in the 2000 draft, when the Milwaukee Brewers drafted him in the 11th round. It became clear quite quickly that he was a First Offense, second defense type of player, and so for a good 5 years in the minors, he tried out at first, third, and all over the outfield. Over those five years, he never once finished the year with a batting average below .280, or, apart from his first season, an OPS below .800. He also hit 91 home runs and drove in 456 RBIs. Not too bad for someone drafted out of high school. Hart even found time out of the day to make a pinch-hitting appearance in May of 2004 for some godforsaken reason, then show up in 21 MLB games in 2005, going a significantly worse .165/.270/.368. He did get a home run in his first start in center field, though. Seems even at 23, Hart's plate presence showed he was more than just a Boy In The Box.
Hart's first real full-time season was 2006, when he batted .283/.328/.468. Tack on 9 home runs to that and you got a perfectly fine rookie campaign, fielding woes notwithstanding. One might even say equivalent to another rookie on the team who batted .271/.347/.483. Oh, that other guy got Rookie of the Year votes and Hart didn't? And that was due in no small part to some shenanigans in Florida? And that other rookie also hit 28 home runs and was named Prince Fielder? Okay, fine. He still had done enough to secure his place on the team for the near future. 2007 would be the year he'd get so hot the fields he was playing on became Fields of Fire. One thing that I haven't talked about that really contributed to Corey Hart's rise up the music charts- ahem, minor leagues, was his speed. Despite his 6'6" frame, he stole 135 bases before he was a full-time Major League player, only getting caught 38 times. Because of that, in 2007 he became, as far as my thoroughly research has told me, the tallest regular leadoff hitter in MLB history. My thorough research consisted of me googling "tallest leadoff hitter" and getting no other results, so feel free to prove me wrong (and no, Aaron Judge does not count). Hart kicked off 55 games in the 1 spot in 2007, stealing a total of 23 bases on the year. Guess you could call him a Young Man Running. Those legs helped the Brewers improve from a 75-87 finish the previous year to the best record in the NL a week after the All-Star break. Even if they stumbled through the rest of the season, they still finished 83-79, a marked improvement. That was thanks in part to Corey Hart, whose 4.7 bWAR was the most on the team. Naturally, he was voted to... oh? That Prince guy hit 50 homers and came in 3rd in MVP voting? And this other kid named Braun put up one of the worst defensive seasons at third base and still stumbled into a Rookie of the Year Award and a couple MVP votes by hitting really well? And Corey didn't show up on a single ballot despite fielding far better than either of them? Oh whatever. Hart had still entered everyday play in the league with a Bang!
The next five years, Corey Hart was taken out of the leadoff spot, and settled into a pattern of good-to-very-good-but-never-truly-great baseball. He averaged .274/.332/.486, with highs of 31 homers and 102 RBIs coming in 2010. He even got voted to the All-Star game that year, coming in third in that year's Home Run Derby behind a shortstop and a 35-year-old man. That shortstop may have been named Hanley Ramirez and that 35-year-old man may have been named David Ortiz, so it's not that bad. Hart even garnered all of two 10th place NL MVP votes that year after hitting .283/.340/.525. Good luck telling me why a dude with that line on a team that finished 77-85 who led the team in exactly one category (slugging) was the 10th most valuable player that year. He also got an All-Star berth in 2008 for... sympathy, I guess? Yeah he was hitting .299 with 14 dingers before the break, and the Brewers were doing well, but was he really more deserving than, like, Jerry Hairston batting over .330? Perhaps Hart's good Christian morals pushed him over the edge, since his inclusion was based on a fan vote, and he might've been viewed as possessing worthwhile Attitude & Virtue. The end of that year even saw him get into the playoffs, where he went hit 3 singles, and watched his team step aside as the 2008 Phillies trotted their way to a 3-1 NLDS win en route to the World Series. His 2011 numbers (.285/.356/.510) were near carbon copies of his 2010 numbers (.283/.340/.525). This time the team around him was different, though, because Ryan Braun played like an MVP, Prince Fielder hit lots of home runs again, and Jonathan Lucroy began to come into his own. Also they got Zack Greinke and had a competent bullpen, which probably helped. The Brewers again made the playoffs, and this time Hart hit two home runs, one for each series his team was in. Milwaukee also lost both games where he homered, so make of that what you will. After the Cardinal devil magic cursed them to an NLCS defeat, Hart came back in 2012 for more of the same, with a couple more home runs and 20 RBIs but also almost 40 more strikeouts and his lowest OPS in three years. He also only stole 5 bases after the past two years combined saw only 14 out of 26 attempts go well. He did play a mean first base for the first time in a while after two other first basemen got injured. A January knee surgery was also set to take out a sizable chunk of his speed, which was already on the decline as exhibited by his dip in fielding range. The 3-4 month recovery time was expected to keep him out until May, but once the other knee also required surgery, his 2013 season would end without him ever having suited up for a Brewers game. Even with so much time spent in the organization, including the 10th most total bases in franchise history and a higher Brewers career OPS than both Paul Molitor and Robin Yount, the team said "It Ain't Enough." He'd just been paid $10 million to sit on the sidelines for a year, and given that it was most likely going to be more than that to keep him, Milwaukee instead thanked him for his service and unleashed him on the open market. Would another team see his history, and say "I know I shouldn't, but I Can't Help Falling In Love Corey Hart cover version?"
MLB Trade Rumors placed Hart as the 39th best free agent available. He signed a 1-year, $6-million contract with the Seattle Mariners to prove he still had what it took, and that he'd Never Surrender. Maybe he should've, because after a year of off-and-on Designated Hitting ended with a line of .201/.271/.319, plus notching more strikeouts than hits for the first time in his career, the Mariners decided not to bring him back for the next season. The Pirates, clearly paying all kinds of attention, signed him to another prove-it contract for $2.5 million. Maybe he told them "I'll give you Everything in My Heart." Then he went .222/.246/.352 in just 35 games, and something something Self-Titled. That would be the last we saw of Corey Hart the baseball player, and he confirmed as much in 2017 when he signed a one-day contract with Milwaukee to end it where he started. Hope it didn't leave him feeling Jaded. Ten Thousand Horses.
For all the flack I've given him, Corey Hart did have a nice career. Perhaps not the most memorable, nor the sort that could brand him an unsung hero, but a fine eleven years of baseball. Well, more like a fine seven years, surrounded by four in which he either played poorly or barely played at all, sometimes both. From the tallest regular leadoff guy to a two-time All-Star, there was plenty to like, but not enough to remember, which is why I think he was left off the ballot. And you know what, who am I to compare him to the likes of a singer like the "Sunglasses at Night" dude? Singin' Corey Hart only had 40 singles. Swingin' Corey Hart had over 500 of those!
Corey Hart would visit the Hall of Fame in a Brewers hat for his 950 hits, 154 home runs, 508 RBIs, and 83 stolen bases with the club. He can't visit with sunglasses on at night because the Hall closes at 5 PM.
Here is some more of this same thing but with different names and stories
#1: Randy Choate
#2: Kevin Gregg
#3: Dan Uggla
#4: Josh Hamilton
#5: Delmon Young
#6: Willie Bloomquist
#7: Grady Sizemore
#8: Kevin Correia
#9: David DeJesus
#10: Rafael Betancourt
#11: Clint Barmes
#12: Adam LaRoche
#13: Grant Balfour
#14: Randy Wolf
#15: Rafael Soriano
#16: Chris Denorfia
#17: Bruce Chen
#18: Cody Ross
#19: Scott Baker
#20: Jeff Francis
#21: Aaron Harang

The Rangers are in a Unique Situation

“The way of the future”

- Howard Hughes, The Aviator

The Rangers roster has trended a bit younger ever since Ol’ Reliable at the hot corner retired. And this has absolutely become a mixed bag. Kiner-Falefa has established himself as a Gold Glove Defender, while Scott Heineman has been traded after a disappointing start, and many others have just disappeared. Trades have shipped off Major League veterans and brought on Major League capable youngins with established floors and uncertain ceilings. Players fans have hardly seen in person are gradually entering the lineup. The longest tenured starter in next season’s Opening Day Lineup may be Joey Gallo, who wasn’t a mainstay on the roster until Beltre got hurt during the 2017 season. But the Rangers aren’t winning anything anyway, right? So we can just plug and play and see who goes where. Except, some of these guys have been around for a while anyway. And they haven’t been what we’d hoped for when we first heard their names.
The “problem” at hand is, the Rangers have controllable major league caliber players at pretty much every position right now, but still don’t know what they have. And prospects coming down the pipeline are in no rush, but this should be okay, because they are also at those same positions so we’re not going to rush them either, but then again you also have to consider that quite a few of them are high-risk/high-reward guys, so we have this weird middle ground where we have guys with “meh” floors and “not-so-high-so-as-to-be-asking-too-much” ceilings on the roster RIGHT NOW, and guys with “might-never-see-the-40-man” floors and “regular-all-stars-on-big-market-teams” ceilings. Which still isn’t saying much, but I’ve heard great things for too long to think otherwise.

Having said all that, I want to look towards the future. Taking into consideration last year’s Opening Day Lineup (along with some recent transactions), I’ll look exclusively within the Rangers Organization for positional outlook on the major league roster over the next six years. Why six?
Lineups

Position	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
C	Jose Trevino	Jose Trevino	Jose Trevino	Sam Huff	Sam Huff	Sam Huff
1B	Nate Lowe	Nate Lowe	Nate Lowe	Nate Lowe	Nate Lowe	Nate Lowe
2B	Nick Solak	Nick Solak	Nick Solak	Nick Solak	Nick Solak	Maximo Acosta
3B	Elvis Andrus	Josh Jung	Josh Jung	Josh Jung	Josh Jung	Josh Jung
SS	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	Luisangel Acuña	Luisangel Acuña	Luisangel Acuña
LF	David Dahl	David Dahl	David Dahl	Bayron Lora	Bayron Lora	Bayron Lora
CF	Leodys Taveras	Leodys Taveras	Leodys Taveras	Leodys Taveras	Leodys Taveras	Leodys Taveras
RF	Joey Gallo	Joey Gallo	Steele Walker	Steele Walker	Steele Walker	Steele Walker
DH	Willie Calhoun	Willie Calhoun	Willie Calhoun	Willie Calhoun	Sherten Apostel	Sherten Apostel

Bold indicates last year of team control
Italics indicate another player could also go here interchangeably.

Pitchers

Position	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
SP1	Dane Dunning	Dane Dunning	Dane Dunning	Dane Dunning	Dane Dunning	Dane Dunning
SP2	Kyle Cody	Kyle Cody	Kyle Cody	Kyle Cody	Kyle Cody	Kyle Cody
SP3	Kyle Gibson	Kyle Gibson	Cole Winn	Cole Winn	Cole Winn	Cole Winn
SP4	Kohei Arihara	Kohei Arihara	Kolby Allard	Kolby Allard	Kolby Allard	Hans Crouse
SP5	Jordan Lyles	Brock Burke	Brock Burke	Brock Burke	Brock Burke	Brock Burke
RP	Demarcus Evans	Demarcus Evans	Demarcus Evans	Demarcus Evans	Demarcus Evans	Demarcus Evans
RP	Joe Palumbo	Joe Palumbo	Joe Palumbo	Joe Palumbo	Joe Palumbo	Kelvin Gonzalez
RP	Jimmy Herget	Joe Barlow	Joe Barlow	Joe Barlow	Joe Barlow	Joe Barlow
RP	Brett Martin	Brett Martin	Brett Martin	Brett Martin	Brett Martin	Fernery Ozuna
RP	Joely Rodriguez	Joely Rodriguez	Taylor Hearn	Taylor Hearn	Taylor Hearn	Dylan MacLean
RP	Wes Benjamin	Wes Benjamin	Wes Benjamin	Wes Benjamin	Wes Benjamin	Wes Benjamin
RP	Jonathan Hernandez	Jonathan Hernandez	Jonathan Hernandez	Jonathan Hernandez	Ronny Henriquez	Ronny Henriquez
RP	Jose Leclerc	Jose Leclerc	Jose Leclerc	Jose Leclerc	Alex Speas	Alex Speas

Positional Outlook

Catcher: Jose Trevino has long been touted as a defense-first catcher, winning MiLB Gold Gloves his last two seasons in the minors, and while his bat has yet to catch up, we can chalk that up to limited playing time and injuries. Sam Huff might be major league ready, but I wouldn’t put it past the team to let him “improve his defense” (“he needs to get more consistent with his receiving”) to start the season. His arm is above average (and so is his power), but his talent was never a question, it was a matter of staying at the position (for a catcher Gallo’s size) and making contact (for a hitter with Gallo’s strikeout rate).

First Base: Nate Lowe came over with a sizable track record (.330/.416/.568 in 2018 at three levels in the minors) and some above-average production at the major league level (107 OPS+|105 wRC+). His defense is average (-ish), but at 25, the Rangers will have a hitting-first first baseman under team control for the next six years to pair up with Splits-at-first Ronald Guzmán. Guzmán will enter the 2021 season with a .230/.308/.417 triple slash in 721 Major League at-bats. His playing time will not improve over the next few years. It might be time we take him for what he is and hope he can become a league average bench bat.

Second Base: Nick Blake Solak is a butcher with the leather. Let’s be real, we knew this walking into Spring Training 2020 Pt. 1. The availability of second base is a gift to him. Consistent playing time at the keystone should allow his full potential with the bat and the glove to come to fruition. If Nick Solak is out, Anderson Tejeda could take over in a pinch. Should Anderson Tejeda be unable to fulfill this duty, ~~Stinky~~ Justin Foscue (21|ETA: 2023) will be waiting in the wings, as yet another bat-first (but college proven) second baseman. Second Base is not a position that should inspire confidence, but, I mean, come on.

Third Base: We’re kinda at a loss here until Josh Jung (21|ETA:2021|FV:45+–55) comes up. It may be early next season, it may be late next season, it may be further down the line. Who can say? We haven’t even mentioned Davis Wendzel (23|ETA: 2023|FV:40+–50) yet, the other slick hitting, smooth fielding (both middle infield spots‽) First-Rounder the Rangers plucked in 2019.

Shortstop: If Isiah Kiner-Falefa is one thing, one single thing, it’s tenacious. If this can translate to a seamless transition to short, I wouldn’t mind missing out on the crop of All-Star free agents after the 2021 season ^{^{^please}} ^{^{^give}} ^{^{^me}} ^{^{^trevor}} ^{^{^story}}
IKF being able to commit to a single position next season is monumental for the team this offseason.

Left Field: David Dahl. Mr. First-Hit-in-Globe-Life-Field-History is a walking injury history. Not that he isn’t a good player, but this is literally his defining trait. Oft-Injured All-Star David Dahl. As confident as I want to be in him and his production, Eli White and Co. need to be available off the bench at any time. And while the Rangers are not so rich in OF prospects, they do have some very interesting high ceiling guys (like they do at every other position). Bayron Lora (18|ETA: 2024), another prospect drawing comparisons to Gallo in terms of size and power, projects to be average defensively with potential to play right. Hopefully he can stay in left.

Center Field: Leodys Taveras has Gold Glove potential, and the guys in the front office think he can lead off. If both of those things happen (for the right reasons), Taveras could be the most valuable position player on this team over the next six years. In reserve is Bubba Thompson (22|ETA:2022|FV: 45+), a speedy outfielder with five-tool potential (“at least a 25-25 player if everything clicks”), but “struggles with pitch recognition and plate discipline”. Though this doesn’t sound good for a 22 year-old that was under consideration for a repeat assignment at A-ball, his former hitting coach, Chase Lambin has called him “... a Ferrari who is trying to find his steering wheel”.

Right Field: Joseph Nicholas Gallo is the biggest question mark on this team. He might be an MVP candidate, he might bat .215, he might not even be on the team after next season. His ceiling is the highest in the Rangers’ organization, and his floor is more or less what we saw this past season. His future role in the organization is TBD, so we can thank former Right Fielder Nomar “Future AL MVP” Mazara for netting us Steele Walker (24|ETA:2021), the coolest name in Texas baseball. He projects to be bat-first, but a capable defender (“fringy arm strength”) in the outfield.

Designated Hitter: Willie Calhoun has drawn the short end of the bat at every turn. Guy can’t catch a break. Sliding to full-time DH might bring him some form of relief and allow him to realize his full potential. Regular playing time is almost guaranteed if he can stay healthy. And should anything serious befall him, Sherten Apostel (21) comes with a cool name, a cool story, and a cup of coffee. But he doesn’t come with a position, as there appears to be a logjam of sorts at the infield corners.

Starting Pitchers: Whether or not, “new hotness” Kyle Cody (26|6/8 Outings of 2+IP and 1 or fewer ER) is fully ready for a complete major league season, we’ll still have a full season of Kyle Gibson (33|4/12 Starts of 5+IP and ER<=3 in a shortened 2020 including a CGSO @HOU) ^{Also 5/12 Starts of 5+ ER}
Alongside our Kool Kyles Klub are close cousins Jordan Lyles (30) and Kohei Arihara (28). I know we can say a lot about these guys and what our expectations are for them, but we can’t kid ourselves. These guys are MORPs/BORPs through and through. Lyles just lead the league in Earned Runs and Arihara will have to adjust to Major League hitters after an up and down past few seasons (2.46 ERA in 164.1 IP in 2019 followed up with a 3.46 ERA in 132.2 IP in 2020). But “K”s and “-yle”s can only get you so far in this league. Thankfully, a true alliterative pitcher rises from the ashes of 2020. Dane Dunning (26), acquired for a year of Lance Lynn, is under team control for six years. His floor is seen as a control-oriented MORP, and while a lack of electric stuff keeps him from being seen as a potential ace, he should be more than capable of producing at the major league level for the duration of his time with the team. On the flip side are some guys who have shown flashes, but have yet to provide consistent quality innings. Kolby Kenneth Allard (23), after, y’know, hey he did alright in 2019 in nine starts (105 ERA+|4.96 ERA in 45.1 IP), had a 2020 stretch across six starts in which he picked up six straight losses and had a 12.19 ERA in 20.2 IP. Where his true value is, we will have to wait and see. Brock Burke (24) will soon (okay, not that soon, like mid-season at best) make his return, and let me tell ya, I’ve never been more hyped about a pitcher from three starts. Unfortunately, his next three starts were unimpressive and led to an inconvenient injury. He doesn’t seem to have a whole lotta guys in his corner, but I’m very much all aboard this guy’s hype train (and I’m really glad we could get some value from Profar). Still to come through the pipeline are guys we all know by name by now, having heard them touted for the past few years, Cole Winn (21|ETA:2022|45+–50FV), a 2018 First Rounder with only a single pro season, has been ranked 5^th and 6^th in the Rangers system, and with three plus pitches and a good build, he’s projected to at least have a high floor. Hans Crouse, a former top 100 prospect (and still a top Rangers prospect), has a stellar fastball with a plus slider, and a changeup might be there too. His mechanics are considered gestures, but his command is good enough to stick (still needs that other pitch though).
Relief Pitchers: Bullpens are a finicky bunch. Everyone knows this. I don’t need to spell out bullpenisblank. What’s important is knowing what guys are coming in or coming out or staying put. We’ve got our semi-regular cast as of now, Jose Leclerc and Brett Martin, and the revolving door behind them has now reached an interesting point. Jonathan Hernandez (24), who may have a future as a “fireman”, or “stopper” of sorts, has established himself as capable of preventing runs and doing so in multiple innings per night. “Jimmy Herget”, and his return to the team are not without question, and I wonder if the front office guys see something in him that the rest of us don’t, as he’s 27, about league average, and the organization has a good amount of pitchers needing that next big step. Cheap team control is something, though I don’t see him sticking around for too long (hopefully for the right reasons). Demarcus Evans (23|5.5 BB/9 & 13.7 SO/9 in 242.1 iP and 5 Seasons in MiLB) and Joe Barlow (25|6.0 BB/9 & 12.9 SO/9 in 193.2 IP and 4 seasons in MiLB) are thick as thieves and filthy as sin. With Evans getting promoted last year, it might be a bit premature to say he’ll make the Opening Day roster, but he did well in limited time and we can only hope the both of them can remain the K-Machines they are as they attempt to bring their collective walk rate below 4.5 BB/9. Ronny Henriquez (20|ETA:2022), while currently being seen as a future starter with plus stuff, may have to make a move to the bullpen due to his “small” stature (5’10”, 155 lbs.) and “could add velocity in shorter stints and perhaps develop into a setup man.” Alex Speas (22|ETA:2022|6.9 BB/9 & 13.4 K/9 in 71.2 IP topping out at A ball), after surviving the Rule 5 Draft, knows a thing or three (digits) about velocity, “He’s throwing 102”. But stop me if this sounds familiar, walk rate and control. Fernery Ozuna throws heat, and only has 12 IP in professional baseball. After needing TJS, he was expected to be with the major league club as soon as he was healthy again, but a lack of minor leagues last season meant it’d have to be another year before he got the call. He probably does need a few more innings before he can debut as a full-time reliever, so I think it makes sense to push his timetable back a bit.
Joely Rodriguez, should he stick around for the remainder of his contract ($2.5M in 2021, along with a team option for $3M in 2022), would provide a complementary “solid” left-handed piece out of the bullpen, and we all know the Rangers have a plethora or LHP transitioning to the bullpen to get the call-up (Joe Palumbo, Taylor Hearn, Wes Benjamin). Dylan MacLean (18|ETA:2024|FV:40), a recent draft pick, has already climbed the ranks as one of the best left handed options this team has in reserve. A good handle on three pitches and room to grow (literally too), He has a high floor and his fastball should pick up some speed (High 80s to Low 90s as a high schooler).
TLDR: Bullpens are volatile and who winds up coming up and out of the bullpen in the future is pure guessing at this point.

HELP IS ON THE WAY (SLOWLY BUT SURELY)

Am I saying I don’t think the Rangers should spend this offseason? Not particularly, but I don’t see a need for the Rangers to go after a top-tier, upper echelon free agent (yet).
Perhaps they could spend on a younger long-term asset, and now a new problem arises because the youngest free agent SP at this moment are 28-year-olds Taijuan Walker, a valuable commodity this offseason having proven he can eat innings and provide quality outings despite low arm mileage (though just a year and an inning removed from TJS), and Carlos Rodon, who has shown flashes of greatness but has yet to string together a stretch demonstrating he is good and can stay healthy (1 season of 140+ IP & 3 other seasons with a 100+ ERA+). There are a good deal of young players expected to hit the market next offseason, however, just as was speculated about another previous offseason, we may not see that happen and any money saved would be for nothing and then there would be the excuse “there’s no one to spend money on”, so we need to both count our chickens at the appropriate time and also not let sleeping dogs lie. But also there is no reason to spend right now. And—
I’ve spent a ton more time on this than I initially planned (I didn’t consider the age-old adage, TINSTAAPP when I went in for a closer look at future relievers (Not a whole lot of left-handers, by the way)), so IF—
You know what, that’s not big enough.

IF

perchance I may have overlooked or selected a player you feel was not aptly looked into for this ”Franchise Future Overview”, please provide links in your long-winded, very informative comment. Just please have a discussion and not an argument over whether Joey Gallo’s long-term future is with this team. Let us believe.

Anyway, here are some links I found helpful.
Roster Resource on Fangraphs
Spotrac for payroll and contract details
Prospects1500’s Texas Rangers Top 50 prospects for 2021

OOTP 21 Franchise Startup Guide: Part 2

3.) Building Your Team
A.) Owner
The owner is the only member of your organization that you have no control over (unless you go into commissioner mode), and he can greatly impact how you run your organization. The owner personality traits are pretty self-explanatory, so I won’t go into detail explaining them, but I will say that a meddling or interfering owner is not very fun to work for. If I get an owner with one of these traits, I go into commissioner mode and edit them. The reason being that these owners will re-sign players and sign free agents for you, which can totally sabotage your plans. I know that it is meant to provide an added level of realism to the game, but to me it only provides frustration.
B.) Scout
i.) Scout Ratings
Scouts have ratings in four different categories: Majors, Minors, International, and Amateur. The ratings range from “Unproven” to “Legendary”, with “Legendary” being the best. The better a scout is in a category, the more accurate his reports in that category will be. Scouts also have a “Projection” rating that ranges from “Highly Favors Ability” to “Highly Favors Tools”. Scouts that favor ability will be better at identifying a player’s current ability and will find more serviceable MLB players. Scouts that favor tools won’t find as many serviceable MLB players, but will find more superstars.
I would highly recommend getting a scout that “Highly Favors Tools” and has good ratings in all four of the scouting categories. If you have to hire a scout with subpar ratings in any category, I would prioritize scouting amateurs and minors over the others. Homegrown superstars on minimum scale contracts are the most valuable asset in the game, and a scout that favors tools gives you the best chance at acquiring these.
This is the most important member of your organization. Every decision you make will be influenced by the scouting reports your scout provides, so money is not an object. Pay the best scout available whatever they want. At the beginning of every offseason look to see if there is a better scout available, and if there is hire him, even if you just signed your current scout the past offseason.
ii.) Scouting Budget
You can spend a minimum of $8,000,000 and a maximum of $24,000,000 on scouting, and then you can decide where to allocate this money. There are four areas where you can invest money into scouting: Majors, Minors, International, Amateur. The more money you spend in an area the more reports you will get, which means better accuracy.
I would recommend putting the maximum amount of money into your scouting budget. It’s the same as with acquiring the best scout available, all of your decisions are influenced by your scout’s evaluation of players, so you want the best information possible. Where to allocate your budget is dependent on where you are as a franchise. If you are in rebuilding mode you should be spending more on amateurs and minors, if you are in contention you might want to spend more on major league scouting. I personally prefer to keep my scouting budget balanced amongst the four categories due to the fact that I don’t think you should ever be tanking, and you should never be sacrificing your future for a small championship window. You want to field a good competitive team while also developing players for the future.
C.) Trainer
The trainer is another very important member of your organization. They help prevent injuries and influence how long it takes to recover from them. Trainers have ratings ranging from “Unproven” to “Legendary” in nine different categories, with “Legendary” being the best. These are the nine different ratings and how I rank them from most to least important:
1.) Prevent Arm Injuries
2.) Fatigue Recovery
3.) Prevent Leg Injuries
3.) Prevent Back Injuries
5.) Prevent Other
6.) Heal Arms
7.) Heal Legs
7.) Heal Back
9.) Heal Other
Unlike the scout, I would not prioritize finding a balanced trainer. If you can find someone that’s good in everything that’s great, but the most important thing is preventing injuries. Every time a player is injured, they are more likely to get injured again, so you want to prevent injuries at all costs. Fatigue recovery does not help prevent any one specific injury type, but since fatigued players are more susceptible to injury, it helps prevent all injuries. Pitchers are more susceptible to injuries than position players so you should prioritize “Prevent Arm Injuries” over the other prevention ratings.
Like the scout, you should look at the beginning of the offseason to see if a better trainer is available, and if there is hire him. It does not matter if you just hired your trainer last season and have to eat $4 million dollars for firing him. Your trainer is responsible for the health and well-being of all 200+ players in your organization, money should not be an object.
D.) Coaches
Major league coaches aren’t quite as important as minor league coaches, and definitely not as important as the scout or trainer, but you should still put some thought into who you bring in to fill these roles. A lot of who you hire will be dependent on your organizational philosophy (there’s a section on this below), but no matter what your philosophy you want coaches with good development influence and relationships (in that order).
i.) Bench Coach
Assuming you’re playing as GM and manager, this will be the guy that makes decisions when you sim games. You are in charge of setting lineups and depth charts, but he decides when to bring in a relief pitcher or pinch hit. You can view the bench coach’s tendencies toward these things on their profile page. The bench coach also influences fielding and running development, so he can help maintain the skills of your veteran players.
When searching for a bench coach filter for development influence and try to pick the guy that has the highest development influence, but also fits what you’re trying to do organizationally and has good relationships.
ii.) Hitting Coach
Hitting coach preference is also dependent on the type of team you have and your organizational philosophy. I like to build my team around defense, so I have a wide variety of hitter types, and usually hire a neutral hitting coach.
When searching for a hitting coach sort by development influence the same as with the bench coach and find the guy that best fits what you’re trying to do and has good relationships.
iii.) Pitching Coach
This is pretty much the exact same as for the hitting coach. Try to find the guy with the best development influence that fits what you’re trying to do and has good relationships. I prefer groundballers so I almost always hire a groundball pitching coach.
E.) Assistant GM
A lot of people say you can leave this position vacant, and they’re not wrong. If you’re managing every aspect of your organization, you’re paying this guy $500,000 per year to tell you whether or not he likes the trades you’ve constructed. He has no trade ideas of his own, only critiques of yours. I fill this role partially for role playing purposes, but also as a sanity check when making trades. Try to find an assistant GM that values the same things you do (look at their value ratings on their profile page), and he’ll help make sure you’re not doing anything too crazy, but at the end of the day you shouldn’t be paying too much attention to this guy.
F.) General Roster Building Guidelines
i.) Organizational Philosophy
An Organizational philosophy isn’t an official part of the game, it’s just what you value and how you’re trying to build your team. There are many different ways to win at this game, and I’m definitely biased as to which strategies I think work best, but if you find something that works for you go with it, you don’t have to follow what people other people tell you is the best way to play. If you’re having fun and fielding good teams you have a good strategy.
For pitching it seems that most people either go with the power pitcher approach or the groundballer approach. Power pitchers rely heavily on striking batters out, so they require a high stuff rating. Groundballers allow a lot of balls in play so they rely on a high movement rating to prevent the ball from being hit hard, which gives the defense a better opportunity at fielding the ball. Even with high movement though, groundballers require good infield defense. All pitchers require good control. I don’t know of any effective strategy that involves walking a lot of batters.
For batters there a multitude of strategies, and I would be lying if I said I understood how all of them work and what’s the best one to use. The two strategies that seem to pair well with the pitching strategies mentioned above are an all offense, power hitter approach to go with power pitchers and a defensive oriented lineup to go with groundball pitchers. The powepower combo works well because power pitchers aren’t relying too much on their defense to get outs, so you can sacrifice defense to get more offense in the lineup. The groundballedefense combo is really the only combo that works with groundballers. If you don’t have good defense, groundballers really aren’t very effective. You can sacrifice some outfield defense with groundballers to get more offense in the lineup, but you really can’t skimp on the infield defense.
Whatever approach you decide on, you should have coaches and players that fit this philosophy at every level of your organization.
I personally prefer to build my team around groundballers and elite defense. These teams usually won’t get you the 120+ win seasons like the powepower combo, but they are much more consistent. My teams grind out 100-105 wins per season and perform very well in the playoffs. Hitters can easily go cold for an entire playoff series, but defense is always there. Also, these teams are usually cheaper to build, so it makes getting off the ground easier. The AI undervalues defense and there’s always a 45 overall groundball pitcher out there that can give you 160-170 IP and around 2 WAR.
ii.) Injury Proneness
Injury proneness is listed on the player profile page and lets you know how likely a player is to get injured. “Wrecked” is the most likely to get injured and “Iron Man” is the least likely to get injured. When evaluating any player this is the first thing you should look at. I’m a firm believer in “the best ability is availability”. If a player is not on the field, he provides no value to your team, so I would avoid fragile and wrecked players like the plague. In addition to looking at a player’s injury rating you should also look at their injury history. If a player is listed as durable but just came off a torn Achilles, they are not durable, they are normal. Treat this player as such and either trade him while he still has value (if he’s on your team) or pay in a trade/signing for him what you would pay for a player with normal injury proneness. Remember, every time a player gets injured, they are more likely to get injured again.
As with all things there are some exceptions to this. You can usually get by with a reliever or DH that is fragile, but I wouldn’t play the DH every game and I wouldn’t have more than one or two fragile relievers. Also, I wouldn’t commit for more than a season or two with these players. Sometimes there will be a god-like, but fragile, starting pitcher that is available, and it might be worth acquiring him short-term for a playoff push, but he should be a luxury, not a necessity.
iii.) Player Character
Player character is another important aspect to look at when evaluating players. High character players are more likely to develop to their full potential, can impact development and performance of their teammates, and can improve team morale. Low character players have the opposite effect. There are six character attributes viewable for each player and I rank them by order of importance like this: Work Ethic > Intelligence > Leadership > adaptability > greed = loyalty.
Work ethic and intelligence affect the development of the player with those attributes, so you really don’t want a low rating in either of those, unless you have a high rating in one to go with a low rating in the other and the player’s talent is just too good to pass up. Leadership affects other players on the team, so a player with high work ethic/intelligence and low leadership is ok, just make sure you don’t have too many of them and that you have more high leadership players than low leadership players on your team. Adaptability affects how well a player adapts when being promoted a level or moving to a different team. This is nice to have, but not critical. Greed affects how much money a player wants. This shouldn’t affect you too much, but keep in mind that a player with high greed can become upset if he feels he is underpaid. Loyalty affects how likely a player is to re-sign with your team; nice to have but not necessary.
Player’s with a specific set of character attributes will have a listed personality. As you can see from that table there are some hidden character ratings. If you’re interested in looking at the hidden ratings for a particular player, you’ll have to go into the editor. Captain, Fan Favorite, Prankster, and Sparkplug are all good personalities to have. Captains are elite leaders and can keep team morale up during difficult stretches. Fan favorites are extremely popular; they increase fan interest when acquired or re-signed and help maintain fan interest during the season. Pranksters help keep the mood light and also help maintain morale during tough stretches. Sparkplugs are high energy and less susceptible to slumps. I also think sparkplugs perform better at the top of the lineup, but I have not been able to confirm this yet. I’m pretty neutral about Humble, so I wouldn’t go out of my way to acquire a player with it. The other ones I would avoid (Disruptive, Outspoken, Selfish, Unmotivated).
iv.) Player Roles
Each player has a desired role they would like to play. If they are not playing in this role it can have a negative impact on their morale. These roles are not static and can change depending on player experience and talent. The roles are:
Starting Rotation – It’s usually pretty easy to predict when a player will want to be a starting pitcher: they’ll have 3+ pitches, 35+ stamina, and have spent a season or two as a starter (starting in the minors counts!). Some players will want to be a starter even if they don’t have these ratings, but will change their expectation if put into a bullpen role for a season or two, so you will need to decide if the morale hit to that player is worth taking the time to change their expectation. If you are wanting a player in your farm system to play a bullpen role in the majors, I would recommend playing him in that role in the minors. If a player has too much talent, he might not ever accept his fate as a bullpen arm, so you might just have to take the morale hit for those fringe starters you want to use as long relievers.
Bullpen – This role is usually the one that gives me the most trouble. It seems that everyone wants to be either a starter or closer, and it’s really hard to find good bullpen guys willing to accept this role. If a player is talented enough you can just take the morale hit, but for middle of the road guys you want them to be as happy as can be. If you have a really good reliever coming up through your system, make sure they’re in that role and not starting. If a player has never closed before they won’t have a desire to, but if you let him close out games for a season, he’ll desire that role for the next five seasons.
Closer – It’s very easy to find someone willing to accept this role. I’ve never seen a bullpen guy that didn’t have that expectation after closing games for a while, and I’ve even gotten starters to accept the role.
Starting Lineup – This is the expectation most position players will have and it’s pretty easy to deal with, just put them in the starting lineup. Unfortunately, you can’t platoon a player with this expectation to make him happy. He has to be listed as the primary starter on the depth chart. I’ve had guys start ~100 games and get ~400 PA and be angry over their role. A lot of times you’re just going to have to take the morale hit for your bench players, because it’s very difficult to find someone good enough to play at the MLB level, but desire to be a bench player.
Bench Player – This role is even easier to deal with. You don’t have to do anything at all. Finding a player with this expectation that is worth having is difficult though.
Middle of the Lineup – These players desire to hit in the 2-4 spots. They seem to be ok batting leadoff but if you put them in the 5 spot they get angry very quick. This one is very frustrating to deal with because a player in real life that desired to bat in the middle of the order would be perfectly ok batting fifth. It’s also frustrating because most good hitters have this desired role. So, if you want to have more than four good hitters in your lineup, at least one of them will be angry about their role.
Top of the Lineup – This one is pretty rare, not many players desire this role, and the ones that do desire it usually deserve the role. I’m pretty sure they are fine with batting in the 1 or 2 spots, but anything else they’ll be upset with.
v.) General Batter Guidelines
There are no hard rules for what ratings are acceptable for batters. It all depends on what your team needs, and a lot of times on what you’re willing to accept to justify the defense a player provides. Unconventional players are usually cheaper than prototypical stars. Try to find inefficiencies in the market and fill out the back half of your roster with value. In general, gap power isn’t overly useful, and I wouldn’t prioritize it. Home run power is nice, but very expensive. Eye/Discipline is more expensive than Contact/Avoid K’s, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s better.
If you’re trying to determine if a player can “survive” as a hitter at the MLB level, I’ve found these few archetypes that seem to “work”.
“The Grinder” – This guy doesn’t hit for power, and he actually doesn’t hit much at all, but he does see a lot of pitches, which is useful for wearing down a pitcher. These players will have 50+ Eye/Discipline and Avoid K’s, with one of those usually being 55+, and 44 or less in their other three ratings. This is acceptable for a catcher batting 8th.
“Moderate Power” – This guy is going to hit 20-25 HRs per year and that’s about it. Look for a player with 55+ HR power and 40 or below in their other ratings. This guy can bat 7th.
“No K, No Power” – This guy will hit the ball, not draw walks, and has no power. These players will have 50+ Contact and Avoid K’s, with one of those usually being 55+, and 40 or below in their other ratings. You need to make sure this guy has decent baserunning and speed, or he’ll be a DP machine. This guy can bat 9th.
Hopefully your elite defenders fit one of these profiles instead of the much more common “Well-Rounded Suck” guys. These guys are a 45 or below at all five ratings and are pretty much a black hole offensively.
Make sure you pay attention to L splits. These are very important. Players can have significantly better ratings/stats against one type of pitcher than the other. Unless your lineup is full of players that are perfectly balanced, you probably shouldn’t have the same batting order against righties and lefties.
vi.) Positional Versatility
Players that can play multiple positions are very useful. They allow you more flexibility when injuries occur, when pinch hitting, and when filling out your active roster. This chart gives you a good idea of who can be trained to play other positions competently. The game doesn’t do a good job of mimicking players real life ability to move between C, IF, and OF spots, but it correctly simulates that SS and CF are the most difficult IF and OF spots to learn, respectively. I would recommend training your players to play any position they can play competently. The best time to do this is Spring Training.
vii.) Speed, Stealing, and Baserunning
It can be easy to just look at batting ratings and stats and forget about the baserunning aspect, but this is also important to consider. Speed affects how often a player attempts to steal, Steal affects how successful they are at stealing, and baserunning affects how likely a player is to make baserunning mistakes. Players with high Speed and low Steal are not desirable. They might steal twenty bases, but they’ll probably get caught twenty times also. The AI values speed, so you’ll have to pay for this skill, even if it’s a detriment to the player. If you do have a player like this, you should lower their Stealing Bases frequency in their Game Strategy page. Baserunning is not crucial, but it’s nice to have. It can generate a few more runs and the AI doesn’t seem to value it much.
G.) Positions
I’ve listed the positions in order of defensive difficulty and will give recommendations for ratings thresholds for the position. Keep in mind that I heavily favor defense and these ratings are not necessary to competently play the position. Also, there are always exceptions, so these ratings thresholds are not set in stone. If you’re looking for someone to just be competent at a position, subtract ten from the ratings I suggest. In general, you’ll have better batters at the less demanding defensive positions.
i.) Catcher
Catcher is the most important defensive position because he has a direct influence on every one of your pitchers. They are usually the weakest hitters on your team though. If you can find an elite defensive catcher that can also hit, you should acquire him at all costs. This is the rarest asset in the game.
Catchers have two defensive ratings: Catcher Ability and Catcher Arm. Catcher Ability is the ability to frame pitches; the higher this is the more strikes and less balls your pitchers will throw. Catcher Arm is the ability to throw out runners attempting to steal.
I would recommend getting the best defensive catcher you can acquire, and not worrying too much about offense here. Prioritize Catcher Ability over Catcher Arm if you have to make a choice between the two. I require my catchers to have at least 65 ability and 55 arm, but I always want better. If I can find a catcher with 70+ ability and arm, I’m perfectly fine accepting 40-60 OPS+.
Catchers get fatigued quicker than other position players so your backup will have to start a decent amount of games. You can fill the backup role with another defensive wizard, or you can try to get some more offense here. I personally try to go with another defensive wizard, but there’s definitely value in having an offensive catcher for pinch hitting situations. Ideally, I like to have a left-handed hitting starting catcher and a righty backup, with both of them being elite defensively. The lefty will start against RHP and the righty against LHP, with each “backup” set to start every 4-7 games. Since there are significantly more RHP in the league this means the lefty will start more often.
ii.) Shortstop
This is another position where you really want to emphasize defense. An elite defensive shortstop will do wonders for your pitching staffs ERA. I require these defensive ratings: 70 Range, 70 Turn DP, 60 Arm, 50 Error (if the other ratings are elite). I wouldn’t worry too much about offense here, especially if it means you can get a truly elite defender. Your backup at this position isn’t as important as your backup catcher because they don’t fatigue like catchers do, but you still want someone competent manning this spot at all times. Usually my starting 2B or 3B will slide over to shortstop as the backup, which allows me to prioritize offense a bit more with my utility IF spot. The same as with catcher, if you can acquire an elite defender here that can also hit, you should acquire this player at all costs. This is probably the second most valuable asset in the game.
iii.) Center Field
Once again, this is a spot where you should emphasize defense. You probably won’t ever have to field an offensive black hole here like you would at catcher or shortstop, but more than likely this guy won’t be leading the league in any offensive categories. These are my ratings thresholds for the position: 70 range, 50 arm, 50 error (if everything else is elite). Range is king at this position. A guy with 80 range, 50 error, and 50 arm can win gold gloves here, so make sure to emphasize this skill. If you find a guy here that also hits well and you want to lock him up long term, I would recommend making sure he has a good arm (60-65+). This will allow for an easy transition to RF when his range inevitably starts to decline. Make sure one of your other outfielders can back up this position competently, because like shortstop you want a good defender manning this spot at all times.
iv.) Second Base
Second base is the second most important infield position defensively, especially if you’re using groundball pitchers. I require these defensive ratings: 65 Range, 70 Turn DP, 40 Arm, 50 Error (if everything else is elite). The profile is very similar to a shortstop, except with a weaker arm, so weak armed shortstops are usually good candidates to convert to 2B.
A lot of times second basemen are only good defensively at that position. They don’t have the arms to play SS or 3B every day, and don’t have the height to play 1B. So, be careful when drafting or acquiring young second basemen in trades. It’s very easy to end up with a log jam at the position.
v.) Third Base
Third base is the third most important infield position defensively. You can get by with a weaker defender here, but I prefer to have someone solid due to my use of groundball pitchers. These are the ratings I require: 65 Arm, 60 Range, 50 Error (if everything else is elite). Turn DP is nice to have in case of shifts, but not necessary. Older shortstops are excellent candidates to convert to third base, so when you sign that elite defensive shortstop that also hits to an eight-year deal this is probably where he’ll be playing on the back end of the deal. Unless you’re carrying two utility IFs, or your 1B was converted from 3B, you’re probably going to take a hit defensively when your backup plays here. This is fine though, because the alternative is taking a hit at SS or 2B.
vi.) Right Field
Right field is the second most important outfield position, but nowhere near as important as center field. This is the first spot on this list where I would think about hiding a poor defender. If you have multiple elite bats in the outfield that are poor defenders, put the better defender of the two here. The better your center fielder is defensively (especially range) the worse your corner outfielders can be defensively. These are the ratings I require: 60 range, 65 arm, 50 error (if everything else is elite).
I would avoid committing to a corner outfielder long term unless he has elite defensive ratings or can produce 7-8+ WAR with just his bat. Defensive ratings decline as players age, and only one of these guys can play DH. I usually end up trading them while still on their minimum scale contract and replacing them with a minor leaguer or a veteran short-term solution.
vii.) Left Field
Left field is very similar to right field except you can put a slightly weaker defender here. These are the defensive ratings I require for this position: average rating of 55+ for range, error, and arm, with no individual rating being lower than 50. Since you don’t need much defense here, this should be one of your better hitters.
viii.) First Base
If you need to hide someone in the field, this is where you do it. This is the only position that factors in height. Also, Arm and Turn DP really don’t matter here. These are the defensive rating I require: 40 range, 40 error, 6’0 height. I recently had a 6’8 guy with 50 range and 50 error win 5 straight gold gloves, so the bar for defensive excellence here isn’t very high. Since it’s pretty easy to play this position defensively, you should have a good hitter here. Tall guys that can hit, third basemen that don’t field their position very well, and second basemen with low Range/Turn DP (but decent height) are good options to play first. I really wouldn’t invest a lot in one of these guys because they’re so easy to find.
ix.) Designated Hitter
There are two main strategies I’ve used here: get the best hitter you can that plays absolutely no defense or use a DH by committee. Which approach you use depends on what players you have available. If you have an abundance of outfielders like I always seem to do, and an even split of lefties and righties, then just platoon those guys. If you have an all-world hitter that plays no defense play him. If you have both of those things available, I would probably go with the platoon approach because it’s cheaper and provides more lineup versatility. I would avoid committing to a DH long-term unless they are one of the top-5 hitters in baseball. I just don’t feel comfortable paying that much money to a guy that can’t play in the field.
x.) Starting Pitcher
This can be the most replaceable position on the team and also the most difficult to fill. Truly elite ace pitchers are very hard to find, and more than likely you’re going to be hesitant to acquire them due to injury concerns. If you find a guy that fits your profile, has good character, and has no injury concerns, don’t be afraid to pay a lot for him. I prefer groundball pitchers, so these are my rating thresholds: 45 stuff, 55 movement, 40 control, 3+ pitches rated 50+, 45 stamina, 55 hold runners. The hold runners is not necessary if you have a catcher with an elite arm, but I usually sacrifice catcher arm for ability and need my pitchers to help keep runners in check. A player with these minimum rating can give you 160-180 IP and put up ~2-3 WAR. If you can’t acquire the elite guys, I would just fill my rotation with these minimum type players. The middle tier pitchers are usually extremely overpriced, and your money can be better spent elsewhere. Whenever possible acquire pitchers with 4 or more pitches. They produce much better than their ratings suggest, and the AI does not properly value them. The only exception to this is a knuckleballer. They will produce just fine with that one pitch. Try to have at least one lefty in the starting rotation, preferably two or three.
xi.) Relief Pitcher
Your bullpen composition will be dependent on your overall pitching philosophy and your starting pitchers. I would recommend keeping 7-9 players here. I look for groundballers with these ratings thresholds: 50 stuff, 55 movement, 35 control, 2+ pitches rated 50+, and 55 hold runners. My bullpen is pretty much an extension of the starting rotation, except they have a bit more stuff and a little less control. If I have a starting rotation that can eat a lot of innings, or a versatile lineup that allows me 9 bullpen arms, I like to get low stamina relievers with 3+ pitches. If you don’t overwork them these guys are fantastic. The only problem is they sometimes want to be in the starting rotation if they have 35+ stamina, and it’s really hard to know which ones will and won’t have that expectation. Try to keep an even balance of lefties and righties in the bullpen.
I don’t worry too much about bullpen roles, unless I have an elite reliever that wants to be the closer, then I’ll let him have that role. If I have a fringe starter or two in the bullpen, I’ll usually set them to long relief. Other than that, everyone is a middle reliever.
H.) Building a Lineup/Depth Chart
My general approach is to have high OBP at the top of the lineup, power in the middle, and hope for the best at the bottom. I generally bat better hitters higher so they can get more PAs. Be sure to pay attention to L balance, because you want to avoid long stretches of either righties or lefties in the lineup. If you have a roster with an imbalanced number of righties and lefties, you’re always better off having more lefties. They perform better against RHPs, which there are significantly more of than LHPs.
i.) Top of the Lineup
You want players with high wOBA and good baserunning at this spot. Preferably they’ll be good at stealing bases, but I don’t think it’s that important.
ii.) Middle of the Lineup
I put my two best hitters at the 2-3 spots. The better baserunner usually bats second, and the better power hitter bats third. For the 4-5 spots, I usually put my lower contact, high power hitters here.
iii.) Bottom of the Lineup
I put the best power hitter of this bunch at the 6 spot as a continuation of the 4-5 spots. I try to put my best baserunner at the 9 spot. He’s essentially a second leadoff type guy. The worst hitter goes at the 8 spot, and whoever’s left bats 7th.
I.) Example 26-man roster
i.) Pitchers
Starting RHP x3
Starting LHP x2
Bullpen RHP x4
Bullpen LHP x4
ii.) Batters
C x2
1B x1
2B x1
3B x1
SS x1
LF x1
CF x1
RF x1
Utility IF x2
Utility OF x2

Alabama Slammers Franchise Report - Year 4: The 210 Million Dollar Man

Welcome back to year four of the Alabama Slammers Franchise Report! Here are the links to the previous versions if you want to catch up (2021, 2022, 2023).
We’ve improved our win total every season, going from 73, to 82, to 88 wins over our first three years. I don’t expect to continue on that same trajectory, but I think we can maintain a winning record. We’ll attempt to upgrade our starting pitching with our improved budget room, and hopefully upgrade defensively at center field.
As with the previous versions, I’ll list the moves I made, the rationale behind those moves, the season results, and the future outlook.
Here are the salaries heading into the offseason: (part 1, part 2).
\Unless stated otherwise, all players were re-signed to their one-year arbitration estimate*
Departures (non-trades):
Gilbert Celestino
Celestino is still in the organization but was optioned to AAA due to better available options.
Alexis Olmeda
Olmeda was called up last season out of desperation but I don’t see him playing in the majors again.
Blake Cederlind
Cederlind wasn’t needed this year, so remained at AAA. He will remain with the organization as long as he is willing to accept a minor league contract.
Aaron Sanchez
Sanchez had two good seasons for us but wanted more money than I was comfortable paying. He signed a 2/$25m deal with the Angels and looks to be a slight overpay.
Curtis Taylor
Taylor was also optioned to AAA for the season and will probably remain a minor league depth piece.
Erich Uelmen
Uelmen was a minor league depth starter but missed most of the season to injury. If he regresses, he won’t be in consideration for emergency starts going forward.
Alex Wood
Wood was really good for us last year but wanted more money than he was worth. He signed a 3/$50.4m deal with the Bandits and looks on pace to be dead money by the end of the contract.
Move #1:
Slammers Receive: Franyel Baez, $2.9m Cash
Diamondbacks Receive: Akil Baddoo
I’m taking a risk with this one. Baez is probably a year away from being MLB ready and I’m about to thrust him into a starting role. He should be elite defensively, but I’d be surprised if he has an OPS+ above 50. I’m counting on his defense having a big enough impact on the pitching staff to justify the lack of offense.
Baddoo is a solid outfielder but nothing special. I’m betting on him never being anything more than average.
Move #2:
Slammers Receive: Kyle Freeland (40% retained)
Athletics Receive: Carlos Garay
We’re desperate for starting pitching, so I’m collecting every middle of the road guy I can. Hopefully I can piece together a competent staff.
Garay looks like a career minor leaguer, so I’m not too concerned with parting with him.
Move #3:
Slammers Receive: Josh Taylor (45% retained)
Red Sox Receive: Tyler Benninghoff
We needed another lefty to balance out the bullpen and Taylor looks like a solid option. He was on the trading block and the Red Sox were pretty much willing to give him away.
Move #4:
Signed free agent Jack Flaherty to a 6/$210m contract.
I had a good amount of budget room heading into the offseason, and a big need for starting pitching. I debated signing multiple mid-tier guys but instead opted to sign the best guy available.
If Flaherty remains healthy, he should be in Cy Young contention for the duration of his contract. Starting pitchers are notoriously injury prone, but his age and injury history convinced me he was worth the risk.
Move #5:
Slammers Receive: Jordan Montgomery (100% retained), $2.6m Cash
Brewers Receive: Trey Dawson
The Brewers were so excited to get rid of Montgomery they gave me $2.6m cash in addition to retaining all of his salary. Dawson looks like a career minor leaguer, so I really don’t see the downside here.
Move #6:
Signed free agent Michael Fulmer to a 2/$4m contract. The second year is a team option with a $500k buyout.
Fulmer was mediocre the last two years, but he was mostly healthy and didn’t cost much to bring back. If he flames out it’ll only cost me $2.5m to release him.
Move #7:
Slammers Receive: Dakota Hudson, $100k Cash
Diamondbacks Receive: Dallas Keuchel, Darwinzon Hernandez
I wasn’t planning on adding another pitcher of this caliber, but the Diamondbacks offered him up when I shopped around Hernandez. I threw in Keuchel to clear some of the starting pitching logjam since he appears to have regressed since the end of last season. If things go well, I’ll get a compensation pick from the loss of Hudson next offseason.
Final Financial Situation:
The owner raised the budget from $176m to $190m at the start of preseason, giving us about $18m in available room for the season. We have the 32nd pick in the draft, so I don’t foresee us having any issues signing all of our draft picks.
Here are the salaries heading into the season.
Move #8:
Slammers Receive: $8m Cash
Royals Receive: Trevor Ezell
I should probably stop saying I have enough budget room heading into the season. I think I’ve had to make a move like this every year so far.
I’m not sure why the Royals think Ezell is worth $8m but I didn’t try to talk them out of it. This looks like another win for the good guys.
Season Outlook:
I think Flaherty and Baez are going to do wonders for the team ERA. If we can maintain the offense from last year and the bullpen remains excellent, we should be able to improve our win total. The Braves will still be a problem though. I don’t anticipate being able to get past them.
Batters:
Primary Lineup vs. RHP when Healthy (\DH enabled in both leagues)*
2B – Nick Gordon
Gordon was really good for the third straight season. He plays above average defense, provides league average offense, and has excellent character. The only question is, how long should I keep him? He’s entering his first arbitration season at the prime of his career, so his trade value will never be higher, but I’m trying to win games and he’s a huge part of that. I’m leaning toward bringing him back, but it depends on what’s available in the offseason.
1B – Paul Goldschmidt
I feel betrayed by Goldschmidt. We were in a very tight division race with four games remaining and he went down for three weeks with plantar fasciitis. I’ve had that before and you can definitely play through it, especially if you’re just playing first base. It’s not pleasant, but it’s definitely manageable if the season is on the line. Goldschmidt is a quitter and will be traded in the offseason.
He would have been a free agent, but the owner wanted me to re-sign him. I usually don’t go out of my way to complete owner goals, but Goldschmidt only wanted 2/$10m and was willing to make the second year a team option. I think I should be able to get off his contract pretty easily and might even get something in return if I can find the right team in win-now mode.
DH – Shohei Ohtani
Ohtain had a good year but nowhere near the kind of season he had during his 2023 MVP campaign. He started off extremely slow, sort of like his 2022 season, but finally heated up late. I have him under contract for three more years, so he will return.
3B – Nolan Arenado
Arenado appears to have had another unlucky season as his BABIP was .226 for the year, but I think I’m going to move him while I still can. He’s 33-years-old and his ratings have dropped significantly since las year. The Rockies retained 45% of his salary, so I should be able to get something decent for him without retaining anything myself.
RF – Estevan Florial
Florial regressed a bit since last year but was still solid. I think I can get comparable production from some of my minor league guys, so I’ll trade him if the right deal comes along.
SS – Freddy Galvis
Galvis is still hanging in there, but just barely. His infield range has dropped below the acceptable range for a short stop, and his hitting is too poor to play anywhere else. Injuries allowed me to move him to second base for the stretch run, but I don’t want him starting there going forward.
He has a team option that I’ll probably pick up because I want to use him as a backup the first part of the season until everyone is healthy. I’ll train him at third base during spring training.
C – Ali Sanchez
I thought Sanchez was ready for a starting role, but he didn’t do much with his opportunity. He’ll probably be back next season. I’m just not sure yet if he’ll be the starter.
CF – Franyel Baez
I didn’t expect much from Baez offensively, so I’m thrilled with his OPS+ of 72. His defense was excellent, and he managed to stay healthy most of the year. He’ll be back next season.
LF – Khalil Lee
Lee filled his role in the nine-spot perfectly for the second straight season. I’m hesitant to bring him back though because his defense is starting to slip. I’ll move him if the right trade comes along.
Bench
C – Christian Vazquez
I’d pretty much written off Vazquez after last season, but he found a way to re-establish himself as the starter. I’ll bring him back if he’s willing to re-sign for a reasonable amount.
IF – Jeison Guzman
I really wasn’t that high on Guzman a couple of years ago, but he’s turned himself into a great utility infielder. He backs up every infield position and doesn’t hurt us at the plate. It was a big loss when he tore his ACL at the beginning of August. Hopefully, he comes back full-strength next year.
OF – Jeisson Rosario
I’d like for my utility outfielder to play better defense, especially when my starters aren’t that great at it. Rosario might get a starting role next year if I move on from one of my other corner outfielders.
Replacements
IF – Marcelo Mayer
Mayer was forced into action early in the season when Goldschmidt went down for five weeks. He was 100% not ready for the majors but I didn’t have any other options. He was sent back down as soon Goldschmidt returned but was forced up again in August when Guzman tore his ACL. I was able to keep him out of the starting lineup at first during his second stint, but he played so well that I had no choice but to start him by the end of the season. He’ll be my starting short stop next year.
C – Roberto Alvarez
Alvarez was called up for three weeks due to an injury to Sanchez. He only played in five games, so there’s not much to say.
OF – Matt Hogan
I called up Hogan when rosters expanded to give us a solid pinch runner. He wasn’t needed much but could have a bigger role next year.
Pitchers:
Pitching Staff when Healthy
SP – Jack Flaherty
Flaherty did pretty much what I expected. He provided an ace at the top of the rotation and helped lower the team ERA. He was the all-star starter and finished fifth in Cy Young voting.
My only concern was injuries, but we avoided those for the most part. He had a 7-day day-to-day after the all-star game, but that was it.
SP – Dakota Hudson
Hudson wasn’t bad, but not nearly as good as I expected. He wants 4/$40m to re-sign so it doesn’t look like I’ll be able to get a compensation pick for him.
SP – Justin Steele
Steele had a poor showing in 2023 but got back to form this year. He posted 3.8 WAR over 172.1 innings and was named pitcher of the month for July.
SP – Michael Fulmer
I was so close to releasing Fulmer multiple times, but every time I was ready to pull the trigger he’d go out and pitch an eight or nine inning gem. His ratings have slipped, so I’m going to decline his team option. I’ll take my chances on someone else.
SP – Jordan Montgomery
I gave Montgomery half a season to figure things out, but he never did. I waived him at the midpoint of the year and eventually had to release him. He signed a minor league deal with the Astros, and they ended up using him as a reliever.
CL – Diego Castillo
Castillo started out slow but got better the second half of the season. He’s an upcoming free agent that wants 4/$40m, so he will not be returning.
SU – Blake Taylor
Taylor was amazing this season and finished third in the reliever of the year voting. He will be back.
MR – Jhonatan German
German was passable but could get replaced next year if better options emerge.
MR – Andres Nunez
Nunez had a really good second season and will be back for a third.
MR – Argenis Angulo
Angulo has been really good since earning a fulltime role three years ago. If he gains a bit of stamina, he might even become a starter.
MR – Josh Taylor
The Red Sox were practically giving Taylor away and I really don’t know why. He was excellent this season and will return next year.
MR – Corbin Clouse
Another top performer in the bullpen, Corbin has three years of team control remaining so should be around for a while.
LR – Tyler Ivey
Ivey is a great example of a guy accepting his role and performing well. I’ve seen a lot of guys with his talent constantly upset about a bullpen role and tank their performance until they’re out of the league. Ivey will be back.
LR – Jose Paulino
I started Paulino in the bullpen to provide starting pitching depth but moved him to the rotation after I released Montgomery. He was awesome in sixteen starts and will be in the rotation next year.
Replacements
LR - Kyle Freeland
Freeland spent a lot of the season in the minors to provide starting pitching depth. He was called up when Montgomery was released and took Paulino’s role as a long reliever. He made one emergency start later in the year. He might be back next season if I don’t have better options.
MR – Ian Hamilton
Hamilton was one of my top relievers a couple of years ago, but I don’t have much faith in him after multiple season ending injuries. He was called up when rosters expanded but will probably remain as minor league depth.
Season Results:
We started off the year great, going 14-7 in our first 21 games and looking like the team to beat in the division, but an injury to Goldschmidt in late April slowed our roll. He was out for five weeks and we really struggled during that span, going 2-8 the first ten games without him. Mayer was forced into a starting role and Guzmanwas forced to learn first base on the fly. Our lack of minor league depth really showed.
After that we hovered around .500 for most of the season, but so did the rest of the division. Between game 60 and game 150 the largest separation between first and last place was three (!!!) games. Nobody was backing down and it looked like the division could go any way.
The Marlins faltered the last couple of games, but the top three teams were separated by two games with three games remaining. We were tied with the Cardinals for first place and had a three games series with them to end the season. We won the first game in thrilling fashion. Nick Gordon delivered a go ahead double in the top of the 13th and we hung on to win. Then he came through again in the second game with a go ahead double in the top of the tenth that sealed the victory. The third game was just a formality, but we won anyways and finished the season as division champs!
We had an amazing run the last quarter of the season, going 30-9 our last 39 games. And to make things even better, we made the playoffs before our expansion rival Mexico City Bandits.
Our first-round opponent was the Washington Nationals, who were led by force-of-nature Juan Soto. We battled back and forth over a close series but lost game seven on a walk off homer in the bottom of the ninth. Even though the series was close, I don’t think we deserved to win. Our starting pitching was awful, and we gave up over six runs a game. Flaherty was the only pitcher to record a quality start.
The Nationals ended up losing in the next round to the eventual champion Dodgers.
Top Prospects:
This is the best our minor league system has been in our four years of existence. We finally had a drafted player reach the majors, had a monster draft this year, and just signed an international amateur with MVP potential. This is the kind of system that wins you a championship in 3-5 years.
1.) Ernesto Bernal
Bernal is back at number one for the third straight season and still looks like a future star. His ratings have improved since last season and he performed well in A+. I’ll probably give him one more season there before moving him to AA.
I thought he might have some untapped outfield range potential, but it appears he’ll never be more than an average left fielder. I’ll move him to first base next season, which will probably be his position in the majors.
2.) Angel Nunez
Nunez has off-the-charts potential, but I’ve learned not to get too excited about international amateurs. Hopefully, he reaches his MVP potential, but more than likely he’ll be an average MLB player. I’ll remain hopeful though.
He has the defensive ratings profile of an average corner outfielder or first baseman, but still has time to improve before reaching the minors. He will probably spend two years in the international complex before making his minor league debut.
I was debating between signing Nunez and Jose Uribe, so it will be interesting to see who is better in a few years.
3.) Josh Epps
I’m very excited about Epps. He was listed as an outfielder coming out of the draft, and could probably be a very good center fielder, but has the potential to be an elite middle infielder. As long as his contact develops, he’ll find his way to the majors sooner than later.
4.) Dan Gay
Gay has the outline of a top-of-the-line starting pitcher. He has durable injury proneness, high work ethic, 5 solid pitches, and elite Stamina and Hold Runners. If he can improve his control and movement, he’ll be an ace.
5.) Pat Leveille
Leveille has progressed nicely since last season and had a great year in rookie ball. He’ll probably begin next season in A.
6.) Alex Galan
“The God of Batting” saw his offensive ratings increase across the board since last year, but I was really hoping he’d get some defensive boosts. He’s so close to having elite defensive ratings. He had a good year in rookie ball and will probably begin next season at A-. I’ll force start him at third base, so he’ll have experience at the three most difficult infield positions.
7.) Rawley Hector
Hector made the list in 2021 due to a lack of better options, but he’s turned himself into a legit MLB prospect. He’ll begin next season at AA and could get some major league action as a spot starter.
8.) Tim Mehler
Mehler has some of the most wasteful defensive ratings I’ve ever seen. He was listed as a shortstop coming out of the draft, but I really wouldn’t want him playing anywhere in the infield but first base with his limited range. I moved him to center field where he has elite defensive potential. I wish he had durable injury proneness or a positive character attribute, but I’m not going to complain too much about picking up this kind of talent in the fourth round. He’ll repeat rookie ball next year.
9.) Jim Sullivan
Sullivan is the total package. He has high character, durable injury proness, three good pitches, and a groundball preference/pitcher type. He wasn’t rated this high coming out of the draft, so hopefully he’s a quick riser.
10.) Joe Amoroso
Amoroso has improved since last season but will still need another year in rookie ball. His ratings suggest he’ll be ready for promotion after next season.
Honorable Mentions:
Jack Walker
Walker hasn’t performed very well yet, but I still like his ratings profile. He should be ready for the majors sooner than later.
Oscar Trevino
Trevino has lost some of his batting potential since last year but his baserunning and defensive ratings have improved. I still like his major league chances dues his durable injury proneness and high character.
Cooper Benson
A couple of years ago I thought Benson was a AAAA talent but I’m seriously considering putting him in my starting rotation next season. He’ll definitely be in the majors at some point.
Will Shirah
Shirah has improved nicely since last year and dominated AA pitching. He might start next season in the majors.
Dropped from list:
Bruce Ledezma
Ledezma was the number one prospect on the 2021 list but he doesn’t look to have an MLB future at this point. His personality was revealed as selfish and the injuries are starting to pile up.
Promoted to MLB:
Marcelo Mayer
Future Outlook:
It’s hard not to be excited about a team that won its division in its fourth year of existence, but I’ll try not to get too ahead of myself. We still need to improve our starting pitching, have a tough decision to make with Arenado, and are still in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. On the positive side, our budget was increased from $190m to $204m at the start of the offseason, we have the ability to bring back most of our players, and the farm system is loaded.
I don’t want to go completely in to win-now mode, but I think we’re really close to pushing our fan loyalty to the next level and I want to try to make that happen. Hopefully, I can find a nice balance between long- and short-term success and we can win now while looking towards becoming a powerhouse in the future.
Here are the salaries heading into the offseason: (part 1, part 2).

Tracking Clayton Kershaw’s Velocity in 2020: 9/25, LAA@LAD

Tracking Clayton Kershaw’s Velocity in 2020: 9/3, ARI@LAD

Tracking Clayton Kershaw’s Velocity in 2020: 8/14, LAD@LAA

How Should the Mets Spend This Offseason? My Application for General Manager

Alright, Y'all ready for this? This is my application for Mets general manager. Omar, I hope you're reading this.

1. Projecting payroll

Mets had a payroll ending the season about ~$141 million. Surprisingly enough, of that $141 million, almost $50 million of it is coming off of the books - Devin Mesoraco ($13 million) is a free agent, Jerry Blevins ($7 million) is a free agent, A.J. Ramos ($9.2 million) is a free agent, etc. etc. David Wright is also leaving, freeing up 75% of his remaining contract value for re-investment, which comes out to about $11 million.
Let's also be a bunch of heartless bastards. Team history be damned, baseball is a business, and business is cold, cruel, and doesn't give a shit how many walk-off RBI you have.
That's right, Wilmer Flores and his arthritic knees are gone. Jorge Cantu, listed as one of Flores' most similar batters by Baseball Reference's similarity scores, made $3.5 million during his trip through arb with 4.0+ years of service time and made $6.0 million his next time through arb after hitting .289/.345/.443 through arb with 149 games played. Wilmer Flores is making $3.4 million after passing through arb with 4.0+ years of service time, hit .267/.319/.417 in 129 games this year. For his next trip, we'll be conservative and guess that he could expect to make $5.5 million, which is too much for a platoon-worthy first baseman, especially at a position where the Mets have multiple top or former top prospects and Jay Bruce. We're at $92.5 million, that drops to $90.5.
We'll also non-tender Travis d'Arnaud. There's nothing to be gained by giving him a contract this season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and he's a free agent in the year following. D'Arnaud was making $3.5 million, and historically, players have made about the same as they did in years that they missed completely, so we'll assume that d'Arnaud would not have received a raise if he went through arbitration. We're now down to $88.0 million.
Rafael Montero is also due for a trip through arbitration. He was making just ~$500k, but given the fact that the Mets' are probably better off pitching Corey Oswalt instead of Montero for the foreseeable future and he's still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, the Mets will likely not miss Montero, who has a career 5.38 ERA. We're now at $87.5M.
That seems absurdly low. The Mets are freeing up ~$63 this year after giving multiple year contracts to free agents this offseason? Technically, yes. But there's an awful big "but" here (heh heh, big butts) - arbitration for players. Even after non-tendering d'Arnaud, Flores, and Montero, the Mets still have to give out contracts to some of their best players:

Jacob deGrom
Noah Syndergaard
Zack Wheeler
Steven Matz
Michael Conforto
Kevin Plawecki

I estimated the arbitration raises based on players with similar histories, at similar positions, coming off of similar seasons, and listed them here.

Name	2019 Contracts (Millions USD)	Arb Comparison
Yoenis Cespedes	29
Jay Bruce	14
Juan Lagares	9
Todd Frazier	9
Jason Vargas	8
Anthony Swarzak	8.5
Jacob deGrom	12.4	Jake Arrieta, 2015
Noah Syndergaard	6.5	Stephen Strasburg, 2014
Zack Wheeler	5.4	Carlos Carrasco 2016
Michael Conforto	3.4	Kole Calhoun, 2015
Steven Matz	2.7	Drew Smyly, 2014
Seth Lugo	0.6
Robert Gsellman	0.6
Kevin Plawecki	1.5	Christian Vazquez, 2017
T.J. Rivera	0.6
Brandon Nimmo	0.6
Phillip Evans	0.6
Paul Sewald	0.6
Amed Rosario	0.6
Jacob Rhame	0.6
Jenrry Mejia	(Who Fucking Knows?)
Total	~114

Mets opening day payroll was $150 million last season. Let's assume daddy Jeff will be generous and not slash out payroll after a losing season (again) and $150 million is our hard cap. We'll also assume that the Mets will not be reinvesting any money from insurance from Yoenis Cespedes' contract into the team payroll (the Mets did not reinvest Wright's insurance money as well, and given that there is a larger probability of Cespedes returning for significant time this season than there was for Wright last season, they will likely be hesitant to do so as well).
We'll also assume that the Mets will not trade for any players. Is that a realistic assumption? No. But it's tricky to predict what players are truly available and what prospects the Mets would be willing to move. As a fan, I have no idea what is realistic and what is not with regards to how teams feel about holding onto players under contracts, and it's essentially useless to speculate.
Thus, we will improve the team only either A) from within, or B) from the 2018-2019 class of free agents. The same caveat with trading holds true with regards to free agents - maybe someone won't want to sign with the Mets because they don't like the public school system - but in general, we can assume that if the Mets throw a comparably large contract at a player, they will come to the Mets. In an effort to maintain an air of realism, in discussing free agent contracts, I will list previous free agent contracts by similar free agents and adjust for inflation as necessary.
Alright, we have $36 million to play around with, let's get playing!

2. Building the roster from within

The natural next step is to establish what positions need to be filled. It might behoove the Mets to go out and grab Bryce Harper this offseason, but at the same time, the Mets already have Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jay Bruce, Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Lagares, and Dominic Smith as outfielders that they have discussed as possibilities in 2019 (Cespedes obviously on the fringes). Hence, it makes little sense to improve on an outfield that already has shown itself capable of a fairly high level of production when there are other positions solely lacking on the team.
In order to estimate the Mets' 2019 team talent level, I will use the Marcel WAR projections as a rough guide for WAR (Wins Above Replacement) estimations. WAR calculates how many wins individual players' performance provides over that of a replacement level player - essentially, if you put together a team of replacement level players, you would expect them to win 48-ish games, and if you replaced one player on that team with Mike Trout, who is usually worth 10 WAR, you'd expect them to win about 57-ish games (usually). WAR correlates quite well to team wins - about 75% correlation, so we'll try to make as good a team for ourselves as possible by acquiring WAR via free agency and by looking at the team as is.
Marcel projections are quite conservative with estimating WAR, so please don't take what it says as gospel - there's usually some room for improvement from individual players. There are better methods of estimating WAR moving forward, but they take substantially more time to compile an estimate. Marcel WAR projections are nice because they are harshly realistic - they are more a worst-case-scenario than best-case scenario, but they are more realistic than the worst-case scenario. For example, the odds of Jacob deGrom following up one 8 WAR season with another are incredibly slim. The odds of deGrom following up one 8 WAR season with a 5 WAR season are actually quite good. You will undoubtedly complain about the figures presented here, in terms of rate production, play time, or some combination of the two - just know that the figures are created algorithmically, based in real baseball data, and intentionally conservative.
Note that for the purposes of this exercise, we will be using FanGraphs WAR or (fWAR). If you see "WAR", it is referring to projected WAR by Marcel, derived from fWAR. If you see "fWAR", it is referring to historical WAR stats from FanGraphs.
I will also assume that Yoenis Cespedes is out for the entire season. The Mets have indicated that they will prepare as though that is the case, and so I will prepare that way as well. If Cespedes does come back, anything we get from him is simply gravy.
Initial Rolling Wins Count: 48.1

Starting Rotation

Jacob deGrom (5.4 WAR)
Noah Syndergaard (2.9 WAR)
Zack Wheeler (2.5 WAR)
Seth Lugo (1.2 WAR)
Steven Matz (0.9 WAR)
Jason Vargas (0.0 WAR)
Corey Oswalt (0.0 WAR)

Total: 12.9 WAR
The first three spots in the Mets' starting rotation are obvious: there is not a single reason not to roll with deGrom, Syndergaard, and Wheeler next season. They are proven aces. Both Wheeler and Syndergaard have rather conservative projections, though I think deGrom's projection seems pretty spot-on.
The back end of the rotation is designed to eat up as many innings possible, and value that they provide is basically gravy - Vargas, Oswalt, and Lugo did their jobs eating up innings in the second half, and I don't think it's out of the ordinary to expect them to provide that same value down the stretch. Even though Lugo was a reliever for most of the season, the Mets indicated that Lugo will enter the offseason and train as a starter: as one of the Mets' best options for starter, I would expect him to shove Vargas/Oswalt to spot-starting/relief duty.
The projection for Lugo is underestimated a bit in my opinion, but Matz, Vargas, and Oswalt's seem fine. Mets starters recorded 16.6 fWAR this season, so with some generous estimates, we are already within the margin of error for last season's production. There is certainly room for improvement with regards to individual seasons, and the Mets might be able to scrape and addition 3-4 more wins out of Wheeler, Syndergaard, and Lugo.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 61.0

Bullpen

Robert Gsellman (0.8)
Paul Sewald (0.3)
Anthony Swarzak (0.0)
Daniel Zamora (0.5)
Tyler Bashlor (0.4)
Jacob Rhame (0.4)
Bobby Wahl (0.3)

Total: 2.7 WAR
The bullpen was the Mets' undoing during the season - only the Marlins and Royals recorded worse ERAs from their bullpens. This wasn't helped by losing Jeurys Familia to a trade midseason - Familia, undoubtedly the single best reliever produced by the Mets in the past decade, was one of the biggest assets of the pen and in his absence, it suffered.
It's natural that there are quite conservative projections for all of the Mets' young relievers: WAR underrates relievers by virtue of them throwing so few innings during the season and largely ignores their context-dependent value (i.e. coming into high leverage situations and recording outs). Still, that Gsellman, projected for less than 1 WAR, is the Mets' best reliever, is an indictment that there is still some work to do here.
In addition to Swarzak/Gsellman, who will almost assuredly be in the bullpen in 2019, I have listed a number of Mets relievers who are particularly promising who spent time with the MLB club this season. Wahl had ridiculous K/9 numbers in the minor leagues this season, Rhame has shown flashes of brilliance with his fastball, etc. I do not expect this to be the concrete, solid bullpen, and any of these players can make or break their cases during spring training or during the early going in the season - as I expect to bring in free agent talent to reinforce the bullpen, I would assume that fringe-y relievers like them would be forced off the roster. Still, most of the projections assume replacement level production for these relievers, which is not a bad estimate for how the Mets' bullpen currently looks.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 63.7

First Base

Dominic Smith (0.3 WAR)
Peter Alonso (0.6 WAR)
Jay Bruce (0.5 WAR)

Total: 1.4 WAR
I might get some flack here for putting Smith atop the first base depth chart here as opposed to the prodigal son, Peter Alonso. Smith has struggled this season and last season, it's true! But Smith has also demonstrated considerably above average exit velocity, and with an increased fly ball rate, Smith hit .275/.306/.536 in the second half, albeit in just 72 plate appearances. Still, Smith demonstrated considerable improvement despite being unceremoniously shoved out of play time at first base. While I don't expect Smith to continue his torrid pace into next season, he has demonstrated that he can hit big league pitching, and he's tangibly adjusted and improved from 2017.
But Peter Alonso has arguably as great a claim to 1B as Smith - leading the minors in home runs and raking at every level screams that he's ready for a call-up. Still, the Mets don't feel as though he's ready defensively (as bullshit as that claim might be w.r.t. service time manipulation). Should Smith struggle again early in 2019, or should an outfielder go down to injury and Smith moves to the outfield, I fully expect Alonso to come up and rake, to the tune of minimum 2 WA600 PA. But if Smith goes down, I expect the Mets to first try to give Bruce the majority of plate appearances here initially and move Lagares into a full-time role in the outfield.
But we don't know if or when any of that happens. For right now, first base is in quite a degree of flux, and it has to be played by ear.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 65.1

Second Base

Jeff McNeil (1.5 WAR)
Luis Guillorme (0.4 WAR)

Total: 1.9 WAR
McNeil was nothing short of a revelation at second base this year - 2.6 fWAR in 248 PA works out to a 6.3 fWA600 pace, fringe MVP level. I can't say that I'm bullish on such a torrid pace of production continuing, but at the very least, McNeil's floor looks like .270/.330/.400 with good defense at second, essentially pre-breakout Daniel Murphy with a better glove. That alone is worth about 2-3 WAR, so again, there is room for improvement with the Marcel projection.
I expect Luis Guillorme to be the Mets' primary utility infielder this season. Guillorme can play stellar defense at 3B, SS, and 2B, and he can hit better than Jose Reyes (and, more importantly, and arguably a greater feat, well enough to be a utility infieldepinch hittepinch runner). I don't know how Guillorme's bat will develop, but if he turns out to simply be a scrappy singles hitter, I have no qualms about using him as a defensive sub or backup infielder.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 67.0

Shortstop

Amed Rosario (1.5 WAR)
Luis Guillorme (0.4 WAR)*

Total: 1.5 WAR
Amed finally started showing signs of his star potential in 2018 - despite a weak first half, Amed hit .284/.318/.413 in the last two months of the season (239 PA) and stole 15 bases while his strikeout rate dropped dramatically from 2017. Rosario doesn't need to be Francisco Lindor with the bat, he just needs to be an average bat with plus defense and speed to be a truly valuable player to the Mets, ala pre-breakout Andrelton Simmons. I expect Rosario to beat his projection by about 1-2 WAR based on his second-half improvements.
*Note that the WAR projections are for the full season across all positions - they are not double counted. If a player shows up elsewhere on the depth chart, their WAR has already been counted.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 68.5

Third Base

Todd Frazier (1.4 WAR)
Luis Guillorme (0.4 WAR)*

Todd Frazier took a big step backward this year. After his slugging and average slipped in 2016, Frazier compensated by walking at an increased rate, posting the 6th highest BB% in the MLB in 2017 and the highest OBP of his career. Unfortunately for Frazier, his walk rate dropped back to his career average and his power slipped even further, as Frazier (who missed significant time to injury) posted the worst wRC+ of his career. Still, Frazier profiles well as a defender at the hot corner: Frazier is 5th among qualified 3B since 2013 in UZR and 6th in DRS. Frazier's concerns at the plate will continue into next season, but at the very least, Frazier's glove is reliable.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 69.9

Catcher

We've already beaten the Mets' 2017 win total and we're not even out of the infield! The team is promising so far.

Kevin Plawecki (0.7 WAR)
Tomas Nido (0.3 WAR)

Kevin Plawecki got a surprising amount of plate appearances in 2018, thanks to injuries to Devin Mesoraco and Travis d'Arnaud. He tried to make the most of his limited time at the plate, posting a .210/.315/.370 slash with a 93 wRC+ in 277 PA - slightly better than the average catcher in 2018 (.232/.304/.372, 82 wRC+). But Plawecki's profile belies some weaknesses - Plawecki hit ground balls at a 47% rate and pulled 62% of those ground balls - many of them right to the third baseman or shortstops. Plawecki runs about an average BABIP on pulled ground balls (which is generally around .200 for right-handed hitters) and fails to produce a lot of power. I don't buy into Plawecki's 2018 very much.
Meanwhile, Tomas Nido took major steps backward from his AA batting title in 2017 - despite moving to hitter-friendly Las Vegas, Nido slashed just .235/.316/.353 and fared even worse in the majors. Still, Nido might yet be the better catching option than Plawecki - Nido received credit for 2.5 Framing Runs Above Average Adjusted (fRAA Adj) in just 1.3k framing chances. Extrapolated out to 5k chances, that puts Nido at around 9.0 fRAA Adj, one of the best figures in the majors. Plawecki finished with just -0.6 in 4k chances.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 70.9

Right Field

Jay Bruce (0.5 WAR)*
Juan Lagares (0.7 WAR)

I would prefer to give Bruce the bulk of playing time entering the season in right field. Yes, Bruce has the range of Stephen Hawking, and yes, he has the arm of Olivia Wright. But at the very least, Bruce found his power stroke against fastballs this season and wrecked shop down the stretch, to the tune of .243/.344/.467 in the second half. Bruce still has some swing mechanic kinks to work out, kinks that were exposed in the second half, but at the very least he's not a bad option for right field.
Meanwhile, Juan Lagares seems healthy again after tearing a ligament in his toe. As good as Lagares looked in last year's spring training, and as good as his consistent defense has been, the Mets would be best served by using Lagares as their fourth outfielder and a late-game defensive replacement: Lagares has neither hit nor run well enough for his career (.260/.300/.367, 40 SB - 16 CS) for me to say that he's worthy of and deserving a starting spot - nevermind how frequently Lagares has been injured in his career. Putting Lagares as a fourth outfielder gives the Mets a decent pinch-hitting bat, a good pinch-runner, and a stellar defender for late-game. If the Mets have the lead in the 7th/8th, Lagares can pinch-hit, then move to centerfield as Brandon Nimmo moves to right field and Jay Bruce comes out of the game.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 71.6

Center Field

Brandon Nimmo (2.9 WAR)
Juan Lagares (0.7 WAR)*

Brandon Nimmo. What can I say about Brandon Nimmo? Sandy Alderson joked that the Mets didn't want to trade for Giancarlo Stanton because they already had Nimmo, and Nimmo rewarded that confidence by outhitting Stanton, .263/.404/.483 with a 149 wRC+ to .266/.343/.509 with a 127 wRC+. Nimmo has elite plate discipline, knows how to get plunked, and displayed prodigious power and speed. 2016 Christian Yelich is an excellent comp for Nimmo, and it's a very favorable one. Nimmo's speed should make him an adequate if unspectacular center fielder, but even if he struggles in the field, he'll make up for it at the plate. Even though I expect Nimmo's power to drop a bit next season from regression, I think he's an integral part of the Mets' lineup and its future.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 74.5

Left Field

Michael Conforto (3.0 WAR)
Juan Lagares (0.7 WAR)*
Dominic Smith (0.3 WAR)*

I was understandably bullish on Conforto going into the 2018 season - he had just capped off one of the best seasons by a Mets hitter ever, albeit one abbreviated by injury. That injury appeared to carry into the season, as Conforto hit just .216/.344/.366 - which was still promising, as while the power wasn't there, the walks certainly were. In the second half, however, Conforto looked like himself again: .273/.356/.539 with a 143 wRC+. Conforto brings to the mix a combination of elite discipline and 75-grade game power. There is no better hitter on the Mets, and there probably has not been a better hitter on the Mets since the heyday of David Wright and Carlos Beltran (Beltran's 2007 season: .276/.353/.525). Conforto's projection is hampered by injury, but make no mistake: if Conforto is healthy, 40 HR is not out of the question, and he'll blow past the 3 WAR projection with ease.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 77.5

Final 25 Man Roster:

Player Count	Player	Positions	Projected WAR
1	Jacob deGrom	SP	5.4
2	Michael Conforto	CF/LF	3.0
3	Noah Syndergaard	SP	2.9
4	Brandon Nimmo	CF/RF	2.9
5	Zack Wheeler	SP	2.5
6	Jeff McNeil	2B	1.5
7	Amed Rosario	SS	1.5
8	Todd Frazier	3B	1.4
9	Seth Lugo	SP	1.2
10	Steven Matz	SP/RP	0.9
11	Robert Gsellman	SP/RP	0.8
12	Kevin Plawecki	C	0.7
13	Juan Lagares	RF/CF/LF	0.7
*	Peter Alonso	1B	0.6
14	Daniel Zamora	RP	0.5
15	Jay Bruce	1B/RF	0.5
16	Tyler Bashlor	RP	0.4
17	Jacob Rhame	RP	0.4
18	Luis Guillorme	2B/SS/3B	0.4
19	Paul Sewald	RP	0.3
20	Bobby Wahl	RP	0.3
21	Dominic Smith	1B/LF	0.3
22	Tomas Nido	C	0.3
23	Jason Vargas	SP/RP	0.0
24	Corey Oswalt	SP/RP	0.0
25	Anthony Swarzak	RP	0.0
Total			29.7

Note that Alonso is not immediately projected to begin the season on the 25 man roster, but I do anticipate him coming up at some point during the season. Again, the 1B situation is tricky, and it must be played by ear.

Let's immediately allay some of those fears about the low projections by comparing the projected 2019 Mets to the 2018 Mets - with essentially the same team, some regression, and some improvement all mixed in, this team comes out with just one win more than the 2018 Mets. This helps verify our WAR estimates - if the same team played two back-to-back seasons, as long as there's a mix of young players and old players, you would expect them to perform roughly the same. Obviously, there's room for improvement, some breakout potential, etc., but you can't go into a season expecting to contend by relying on breakout potential. Most of the time, it doesn't happen, and you're left underprepared.
Now that we know what the starting point of our roster looks like, we can begin to make some improvements.

3. Free Agency Acquisitions

The Mets' current payroll with the above roster is about $114.8 million, and our hard cap is about $150 million - which leaves the Mets with $36 million of breathing room to improve the team as much as possible. Playing around in free agency, let's see how much we can accomplish.
For the purposes of this exercise, I will provide a most-similar comparison (as I did in arbitration projections) for the contracts that I would expect to sign the following players. These contracts might not be indicative of the real contracts players sign, as there are other factors, such as demand from other teams (i.e. Mark Teixeira in 2008) or discounts to play close to home and other market factors (Todd Frazier in 2017). But free agent contracts tend to follow the $/WAR framework quite well, so these contracts will largely be based around the framework and a most similar free agent deal.
Initial Rolling Payroll Count: 114 million

C Yasmani Grandal (2.6 WAR) - $60 million/4 years

(Most similar contract - Brian McCann, $85 million/5 in 2014)

Yasmani Grandal has quietly been one of the most valuable catchers in the league, if not the most valuable. Since 2014, Grandal has played in the 5th most games, posted the 3rd best wRC+, and recorded the 4th best WAR in that time span. But of similar important is Grandal's framing: according to Baseball Prospectus, Grandal has accumulated 108.4 fRAA Adj. since 2014, never finishing any lower than 4th in the MLB in any season since 2015. fWAR, the flavor of WAR we are using to measure players, does not incorporate framing runs, but by BP's measure, Grandal has been worth ~1.5-3.0 extra for almost every full season that he's played.
Every part of Grandal - his durability, his defense, and his bat - represent a substantial upgrade over Plawecki. In terms of net overall value, by most public metrics, Grandal is squarely one of the best free agents on the market. I expect there to be numerous suitors for Grandals' services, especially as the Red Sox might look to upgrade over their current catching platoon of Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon, which was assuredly their biggest weakness in 2018.
Thus, I expect to give Grandal a $60 million contract for 4 years, a competitive deal above what $/WAR for position players has been historically (about $6 million/WAR using Marcel projections, by my measures). Grandals' contract and production break down as follows:

Year	Age	Projected WAR	Contract (Millions USD)
2019	30	2.6	$10
2020	31	2.1	$15
2021	32	1.7	$15
2022	33	1.1	$20

Again, WAR is underrating Grandal's true value with regards to his framing ability, as fWAR does not incorporate framing runs.
As a result of signing Grandal, I would expect Grandal to be the Mets' primary catcher, with Plawecki dropped to back-up. This allows Nido to go down to AAA and work on his hitting in a slightly-less-insane environment, and possibly develop into a trade asset.
Thus, Nido's 0.3 WAR drops off of our roster, and is replaced by Grandal's 2.6, and Nido's $0.6 million salary is replaced by Grandal's $10 million.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 80.1
Rolling Payroll Count: $124.6 million

RP David Robertson (0.9 WAR) - $45 million/3 years

(Most similar contract - Wade Davis, $52 million/3 years in 2017)

David Robertson is everything that a closer should be: reliable (in terms of shut downs - increasing your teams' odds of winning by 6%+ in an outing - versus meltdowns - decreasing your teams' odds of winning by the same amount - Robertson has a 3.5:1 ratio, better than Jeurys Familia), durable (Robertson has thrown 60+ innings in relief in nine consecutive seasons), and has brilliant strikeout numbers (11.97 K/9).
The problem? Robertson has rarely been a closer in his career, because he's played for the Yankees for most of his career - whether it's living in the shadow of Mariano Rivera or Aroldis Chapman, Robertson has quietly and consistently been a superb reliever. If the Mets want to improve at the top of their bullpen, Robertson's quiet excellence represents a substantial improvement.
Robertson's career and continued excellence resembles the career of Wade Davis', who signed the largest FA contract for a reliever last season in a year where big contracts went flying. Giving that relievers have been overpaid relative to recent years in both 2016 and 2017, we should expect the same trend to continue in the 2018 offseason. Robertson's contract and production breaks down as follows:

Year	Age	Projected WAR	Contract (Millions USD)
2019	34	0.8	$15
2020	35	0.1	$15
2021	36	0.0	$15

Our projected WAR paints a harsh picture of Robertson's projected future performance, but relief pitchers tend to age quite well. Given that Robertson has been consistently healthy and effectively, we might expect Robertson to outperform those projections. Furthermore, good relief pitching allows teams to outperform their run differential and WAR totals, as they win close games more often.
As a result of signing Robertson, I would expect Robertson to be the Mets' main closer, and move Bobby Wahl down off the roster. Thus, Wahl's 0.3 WAR this season is replaced by Robertson's 0.8, and Wahl's $0.6 million salary is replaced by Robertson's $15 million.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 80.6
Rolling Payroll Count: $139.6 million

RP Adam Ottavino (0.7 WAR) - $12 million/2 years

(Most similar contract - Anthony Swarzak, $14 million/2 years in 2017)

Adam Ottavino has been a superb success story for the Rockies this season. Ottavino redeveloped himself and dramatically and tangibly improved his strikeout and walk rates practicing in a Mannhattan storefront in the 2017 offseason. Since Ottavino is a New York City native and currently lives there in the offseason, it makes sense that the Mets would target one of the breakout free agents of the 2018 season with some ties to NYC.
Ottavino's superb 2018 season showcased improved control and reduced walk rates, and his FIP dropped dramatically. A 2.43 ERA at Coors Field is also nothing to sneeze at. Like Anthony Swarzak, who had a late breakout in his free agent season, it makes sense that the Mets could target a veteran reliever who has made some tangible improvements (and I know that y'all don't exactly have the highest opinion of Swarzak right now, but bear with me!). Here is how Ottavino's projected production and contract breaks down.

Year	Age	Projected WAR	Contract (Millions USD)
2019	33	0.7	$5
2020	24	0.0	$7

Again, these are quite conservative projections because the Marcel WAR projection system tends to be agressive in regressing breakout season regardless of peripherals. Ottavino will be a capable setup man and back-up closer for the Mets.
As a result of the Mets' signing of Ottavino, I would expect Jacob Rhame to fall off the roster. Rhame's 0.4 WAR and $0.6 million would be replaced by Ottavino's 0.7 WAR and $5 million.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 80.9
Rolling Payroll Count: $144.6 million

RP Oliver Perez (0.0 WAR) - $3 million/1 year

(Most similar contract - Joe Blanton, $4 million/1 year in 2016)

Old friend alert! Oliver Perez has bounced around from team-to-team after leaving the Mets, eventually hanging in the league as a serviceable LOOGY for the Nationals and Diamondbacks. But this season, Perez has been superb against both lefties and righties, allowing a .213 wOBA against lefties and .138 against righties.
Perez will be 38 next season, and breakout performances at such ages generally don't continue - hence, Marcel is very harsh on Perez's projected performance. But at the very least, Perez's peripherals have improved dramatically - Perez has just a 1.74 FIP this season, one of the best figures in the MLB. Even if Perez's home run rate comes back down to earth, he still looks like he could be a servicable LOOGY or middle-reliever.
As a result of the Mets signing Perez, I would expect Tyler Bashlor to fall off the roster. Bashlor's 0.4 WAR and $0.6 million would be replaced by Perez's 0.0 WAR and $3 million.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 80.5
Rolling Payroll Count: $147.6 million

RP Brad Brach (0.4 WAR) - $5 million/1 year

(Most similar contract - Boone Logan, $5.5 million/1 year)

Brad Brach has always played second fiddle to Zack Britton on the Orioles for most of his career, but Brach has had a solid career: 3.08 ERA, 3.68 FIP across 456.0 IP. Brach's peripherals took a bit of a hit this year, and he doesn't look like he'll quite recapture his 2016 form where he threw 79 innings with a 2.05 ERA, he still profiles as a solid, veteran reliever who might come cheap.
As a result of the Mets signing Brach, I would expect Corey Oswalt to fall off the roster. Oswalt's 0.0 WAR and $0.6 million would be replaced by Brach's 0.4 WAR and $5 million.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 80.9
Rolling Projected Payroll Count: 152.6 million

4. Conclusion And Notes

Here is our final roster and payroll after signing our free agents. New acquisitions are in bold.

Player Count	Player	Positions	Projected WAR	Cost
1	Jacob deGrom	SP	5.4	$12.4
2	Michael Conforto	CF/LF	3	$3.4
3	Noah Syndergaard	SP	2.9	$6.5
4	Brandon Nimmo	CF/RF	2.9	$0.6
5	Yasmani Grandal	C	2.6	$10.0
6	Zack Wheeler	SP	2.5	$5.4
7	Jeff McNeil	2B	1.5	$0.6
8	Amed Rosario	SS	1.5	$0.6
9	Todd Frazier	3B	1.4	$9.0
10	Seth Lugo	SP	1.2	$0.6
11	Steven Matz	SP/RP	0.9	$2.7
12	David Robertson	RP	0.9	$15.0
13	Robert Gsellman	SP/RP	0.8	$0.6
14	Kevin Plawecki	C	0.7	$1.5
15	Juan Lagares	RF/CF/LF	0.7	$9.0
16	Adam Ottavino	RP	0.7	$5.0
*	Peter Alonso	1B	0.6
17	Daniel Zamora	RP	0.5	$0.6
18	Jay Bruce	1B/RF	0.5	$14.0
19	Luis Guillorme	2B/SS/3B	0.4	$0.6
20	Brad Brach	RP	0.4	$5.0
21	Paul Sewald	RP	0.3	$0.6
22	Dominic Smith	1B/LF	0.3	$0.6
23	Oliver Perez	RP	0	$3.0
24	Jason Vargas	SP/RP	0	$8.0
25	Anthony Swarzak	RP	0	$8.5
*	Yoenis Cespedes	LF	0	$29.0
			32.6	$152.8

On the surface, it appears as though the Mets have improved by about 3 wins to be simply an 81-81 team. However, note that many of the moves that we have made are underrated by WAR:

Yasmani Grandal has historically generated 15-30 runs above average via framing, which is not included in WAR. Grandal's framing conservatively could represent a 1-2 win improvement.
We have replaced multiple rookie relievers who struggled in 2018 - Bashlor, Rhame, and Wahl - with veteran relievers with a much better history. Ottavino, Brach, and Robertson alone could make the Mets' bullpen top ten in the league. Bullpens are underrated by WAR, as they allow teams to win close games more frequently.
We are assuming conservative estimates for many players and ignoring any breakouts from last season. For example, McNeil and Rosario might easily combine for 5+ WAR this season as opposed to the 3.0 they are currently projected for.

Based on our WAR estimates, Grandal's framing numbers, and squinting really hard, I would expect the above roster to win a minimum of ~82 games, an average of ~85 games, and a max of ~90 games. If the Mets wish to make any midseason acquisitions to improve their playoff odds, that flexibility exists as well.
Again, this team would have to rely quite a bit on their young stars breaking out (or, in McNeil's case - continue that breakout) if they wished to contend for the division or even the wildcard. Still, this is a competitive team, and most of its biggest needs have been addressed while payroll has remained largely constant.

5. But one more thing...

Still, a hard payroll cap of $150 million is quite limiting. Yes, the Athletics made the playoffs with an opening day payroll of just $60 million - with Khris Davis the only player making double digits on their roster, and all of their really good players (Chapman, Olson, Manaea, Treinen, Trivino) in pre-arb or early arb. The Dodgers, Cubs, and Nationals all operated this season with a $180+ million payroll successfully. Good talent does not come cheap, and sometimes teams must up their payroll to keep their core together and compete.
That is especially true this offseason, when the Mets have a chance to improve on their production at a place that has been the cornerstone of their franchise for the past decade. He will not come cheap, but as a generational talent, it would behove the Mets to go above and beyond their limited payroll to upgrade here. Who am I talking about? That's right, I'm talking about...

3B Josh Donaldson (2.2 WAR) - $80 million/3 years

(Most similar contract - ???)

(You totally thought I was going to talk about Manny Machado, didn't you!)
Let's keep playing the "Mets are cheapskates" game. Let's ignore Machado. Machado is also a generational talent who is hitting the market at age 26, and he'll easily make $200+ million. The Mets might feel allergic to such large deals, especially after Wright and Cespedes' contracts blew up in their faces (they shouldn't be, and Machado will be worth every penny, but I'm being realistic here).
Donaldson is also a generational talent. From 2013 to 2017, here are the MLB fWAR leaders.

Mike Trout - 44.2 fWAR
Josh Donaldson - 34.3 fWAR
Paul Goldschmidt - 27.7 fWAR
Andrew McCutchen - 26.2 fWAR
Joey Votto - 25.5 fWAR

It's very easy to forget that in the shadow of Trout, himself on the path to becoming the greatest player of all-time, Donaldson himself was still very much apart from the rest of the league.
And then 2018 happened. Donaldson played much of the first half while injured, and his performance suffered. His exit velocity dropped. He missed several months. He got traded! 2018 essentially shot his WAR projection to hell.
But that's precisely why the Mets should target Donaldson. For starters, while his rate stats suffered in 2018, he was playing while injured, and his average exit velocity (89.7 MPH in the first half) rebounded when he was healthy in the second half (91.3 MPH). Donaldson looked really healthy and productive with the Indians!
Donaldson missed significant time with injury in both 2017 and 2018, and that, coupled with his age, is driving his value down. That makes him a perfect buy for the Mets: Donaldson can carry a team as an MVP quality talent when he's healthy and man the hot-corner well. In the event that he's not healthy, Todd Frazier is more than capable of starting, and Frazier could move into a utility role when Donaldson is on the roster.
If healthy, Donaldson could easily put up 4-5 WAR in 2018. He's a right handed bat that helps balance out the lefty-heavy lineup. He represents a substantial upgrade. And, most importantly for the value-hungry Mets - Donaldson will be much cheaper than Machado (nevermind the fact that Donaldson has no stated public preference to playing shortstop instead).
I actually have no idea what a Donaldson contract might look like: I can't think of a player of Donaldson's caliber entering a contract season after such a lost season thanks to injury, so estimating Donaldson's contract is difficult, and I won't claim to have done it remotely accurately. But at the very least, Donaldson will cost less than Machado, require less of a long term comitment - and require the Mets to expand their payroll. That's the point of asking the Mets to sign Donaldson on top of all this: Donaldson is a keystone acquisition that takes the Mets from the fringes of the playoff scene in 2019 to squarely in the middle. Donaldson, with the above roster changes, puts the Mets squarely in the picture for playing for the division, and their payroll would be somewhere along the lines of $170-$180 ish million, about what the Nationals, Cubs, and Dodgers were projected to spend in 2018 on opening day. The reality is that the Mets cannot complement and keep their existing core while refusing to expand payroll to reach contention - they expand if they're serious.
If the Mets want to make enough of an effort where they can luck into a divisional title or wild card slot again, as they did in 2015 and 2016, then they don't have to break the bank. But the Mets have a talented young core. They have one of the best pitchers in the national league. They have some of the best hitters in the national league. They have multiple pre-arb players who, in the 2018 second half, demonstrated that they can be valuable contributers. There is no reason not to spend on this team if you want to bring a title home. The Mets do not have multiple pre-arb rookies like the Athletics or Yankees, they must spend like the Dodgers or Cubs if they want to succeed.
So Omar, if you're reading this: C'mon. Make it happen. ;)

mlb batting average by count chart video

Visit ESPN to view 2020 MLB stat leaders. MLB has enhanced its code of conduct pertaining to harassment and discrimination, has set up an anonymous hotline for those with information about sexual League Year-By-Year Batting--Averages Table; Year Tms #Bat BatAge R/G G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB; 2020: 30: 618: 28.0: 4.65: 1796: 37.03: 32.87 League Year-By-Year Pitching--Averages Table; Year Tms #P PAge R/G ERA G GF CG SHO tSho SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ WHIP BAbip H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W E; 2020: 30: 735: 28.3 SportsDataIO provides a helpful guide that explains the data points within version 3 of the MLB Baseball API. Contact our Support Team with any questions you may have! Josh Gibson, one of the greatest sluggers in the history of Negro Leagues, could become big league baseball's single-season batting average record holder with the .441 mark he set 77 years ago. Batting average analysis, more than interesting statistics, a treasure chest of information to help hitters develop a positive plan for each plate appearance. If you think back to most any baseball game that you watched, professional or amateur, you can no doubt recall some hitters who had some terrible looking plate appearances. Can you name the MLB Batting Average Leaders, 1961-2020? Visit ESPN to view 2020 MLB player stats. To qualify, a player must have at least 3.1 PA/game. Statistics are updated nightly Batting Splits By Counts ~ Top Ten Batting Average Leaders In American And National Leagues For 2009! Batting splits by counts, a complete year end summary of how the top 10 hitters from the American and National Leagues fared in each of the 12 possible counts hitters can find themselves in. The last two columns, estimated batting average and on-base average, do not come from the Markov matrix itself but are calculated from the results of the first four columns. Because of this, the on-base average understates the "true" OBA as it is normally construed, since it. ignores hit batters, reaching base by error, intentional walks, etc.

MLB Database | Baseball Statistics Data | SportsDataIO

mlb batting average by count chart

mlb batting average by count chart - win

How much WAR would a perfect (yet shy) leadoff man accrue in a Major League season?

This is part 3 of my "How much WAR would ________ get?" series. You can find How much (negative) WAR would I accrue playing on a Major League team for a full season? here and How much (negative) WAR would a potato accrue playing centerfield for a Major League team for a full season? here.

Positional Adjustment

Replacement Level

Fielding

Batting

Baserunning

Conclusion

CBS Article: Why MLB teams might start changing how they value high-contact hitters (McNeil mentioned)