NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: Will the Ravens beat

Here are the results so far for us in week 4! We posted our picks on Saturday here https://www.reddit.com/sportsbook/comments/dajgyj/2019_nfl_week_4_picks/.
It's going great so far. Hopefully we can finish strong with the Steelers -3.5, and Over 45 tonight! Risking 5 units combined (not each) on these picks tonight, so they are some of the more confident plays. Although our biggest picks so far have not done well this week (damn you Dolphins!).
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Team	Spread	Juice	Units Risked	Units to Win	Result
Panthers	+5	-105	1	0.95	+0.95
Redskins	+3	+100	1	1	-1
Dolphins	+14.5	-107	3	2.8	-3
Colts	-6.5	-115	3	2.61	-3
Lions	+7	-105	2	1.9	+1.9
Bills	+7	-105	1	0.95	+0.95
Titans	+3.5	-105	3	2.86	+2.86
Buccaneers	+9.5	-105	2	1.9	+1.9
Seahawks	-5.5	-101	1	0.99	+0.99
Bears	-1.5	-105	3	2.86	+2.86
Jaguars	+3	-115	1	0.87	+0.87
Saints	+2.5	-102	3	2.94	+2.94
Steelers	-3.5	+103	2	2.06

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Game	OveUnder	Juice	Units Risked	Units to Win	Result
Panthers/Texans	Under 47.5	-105	1	0.95	+0.95
Redskins/Giants	Under 49	-108	2.5	2.31	+2.31
Chargers/Dolphins	Over 44.5	-108	2	1.85	-2
Raiders/Colts	Over 45.5	-105	1	0.95	+.95
Chiefs/Lions	Under 54.5	-105	1.5	1.43	-1.5
Patriots/Bills	Over 42	-105	1	0.95	-1
Titans/Falcons	Under 46	-105	1	0.95	+0.95
Buccaneers/Rams	Over 49	-106	2	1.89	+1.89
Seahawks/Cardinals	Under 47.5	-105	1.5	1.43	+1.43
Vikings/Bears	Over 38	-105	3	2.86	-3
Jaguars/Broncos	Over 37.5	-107	1	0.93	+0.93
Bengals/Steelers	Over 45	-105	3	2.86

Results - Spread: 9-3 | +9.22 units --- OveUnders: 7-4 | +1.91 units --- Overall: 16-7 | +11.13 units
Our projection model, game write-ups, and picks can be found always free at https://www.scoreprojection.com/.
Also we can be tracked on cappertek, pickmonitor, and NFLPickWatch under the username "ScoreProjection".

After week 2, Brad and I are at an underwhelming 12-11-2 and 10-11-2 respectively, but that was to be expected. Week 3 starts showing more accuracy and week 4 is earning season. Here's a list of our picks for week 3. As a reminder, the Gold Standard Sports Forecasting math historically requires three weeks of in-season data to calibrate, so earning season starts NEXT week!
If you are looking for a place to wager, you can go to www.betonline.ag and use promo code PAID for a 50% signup bonus. They are gracious enough to sponsor the Get Paid Podcast.
NYJ +3 @ Cleveland: Brad: Jets. Sean: No Bet NO +3 @ Atlanta - Brad: NO; Sean: No Bet Green Bay -3 @ Washington - Brad: GB; Sean: GB Ind +6 @ Phil - Brad: Ind, Sean: No Bet Buf +17 @ Min - Brad and Sean - too many points. No Bet Oak +3 @ Mia - Brad: Mia; Sean: Mia Den +5 @ Bal - Brad: Bal; Sean: Bal Cin +3 @ Car - Brad: Car; Sean: Cin NYG +6 @ Hou - Brad: Hou; Sean: NYG (gulp!) Ten +6.5 @ Jax - Brad: Jax; Sean: Jax San Fran +6.5 @ KC - Brad: SF; Sean: KC LA Chargers + 6.5 @ LA Rams - Brad: Rams, Sean: Rams Dallas +3 @ Sea - Brad: Sea, Sean: No Bet Chi -4 @ Arizona - Brad: Chi; Sean: Chi NE -7 @ Det: Brad: NE; Sean: NE Pit -1.5 @ TB: Brad: TB; Sean: No Bet
Historical Gold Standard Results: https://goldstandardsportsforecasting.com/ Get Paid Podcast: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/get-paid-fantasy-gambling-and-dfs/id1400988016

New York Giants (-1.5) @ Carolina Panthers
I watched, in utter disappointment, the entire Giants/Bucs game last week. First thing I want to say about that game is I TOLD YOU SO! In my lifetime, I really don’t think I’ve picked a game involving the Bucs correctly. If I have, I don’t remember it. It’s the most painful thing in the world. But, we’ll get to that in a minute.
For all those Giants fans (including the one that bombed my booth at the bar on Sunday), I don’t want to hear that Eli Manning had a historic performance. I don’t care about the 510 yards, the three touchdowns or the numbers Cruz and Hicks put up together. You know what I do care about? The three picks. Including the one pick six. That puts a wet blanket on just about everything. That, and the Giants inability to win by more than that touchdown. Cost me a game. Wasn’t happy.
Bias aside, I have to take the Panthers here who have the luxury of playing at home on a short week. Ahmad Bradshaw will not play in this game, so it will be up to Manning again to carry the load offensively. Furthermore, the Giants D just surrendered what felt like 1,153 points to the Cowboys and Bucs in their first two games. I don’t think you can convince me that they’ll be able to pull it together and slow down Cam Newton.
The Pick: Panthers
St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears (-7.5)
Full disclosure, I thought long and hard about taking the Rams in this one. St. Louis is quietly a very good team. They nearly took down the Lions Week 1 and fought hard to come back against RGIII and the Redskins, even without Steven Jackson in the game at running back.
Fact is, the Bears defense is better than the Redskins, who lost two huge defensive players in the middle of their game against the Rams that may have shifted the course of the night. As bad as Jay Cutler looked Thursday against the Packers defense, I don’t doubt his ability to rebound fully against a much weaker Rams unit. Cutler is predictably due for two or three absolutely atrocious games a year, so he was merely getting one out of the way early. The Bears will cover this spread, and it will be mostly because of their defense shutting out St. Louis.
The Pick: Bears
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) @ Cleveland Browns
Worst. Back-door cover. Ever. There I was, minding my own business, drowning my sorrows about the other 1p.m. games gone wrong. When, out of nowhere, across my bottom line, a score alert pops up. With less than a minute left and down 10, the Browns had kicked a field goal. The covered the 7.5 spread against the Bengals, and I lost another game. I think that was the closest I’ve ever come to throwing my drink at a television. And I’m a Mets fan. I’ve sat through frustrating losses before.
Back to this upcoming game, C.J. Spiller is making a serious case for taking over as the full-time back in Buffalo. Did you know that Spiller is the most valuable running back through the first two weeks of the season? While the Browns defense looked great against Michael Vick and the Eagles, they couldn’t do anything against Andy Dalton and the Bengals. That leaves me to believe the Bills, who had their way against the Chiefs, will do just fine running the ball.
The Pick: Bills
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
….I hate the Bucs. So much. For the life of me, I can’t get a game right in which they play in.
Well, let’s try this again. Here’s why I expect the Bucs at the very least to cover against the Cowboys. They’ve proven they can win defensive contests against Carolina. They’ve proven they can stay in a shootout with the Giants. The Cowboys, I feel, are one of those teams that when they get ahead by 10, they start to coast a little and may allow a late score to keep it within a touchdown. That, and the additions of David Wilson and Vincent Jackson have actually improved the play of Josh Freeman to respectable levels. Tampa Bay is a sneaky good team.
With that said, you should all pick the Cowboys. I’m getting this game wrong. That’s a fact.
The Pick: Bucs
New York Jets (-2.5) @ Miami Dolphins
As good as the Jets offense looked Week 1, that’s as bad as they looked Week 2. However, while the defense did give up 27 to the Steelers, a lot of what Pittsburgh did well was thanks to Ben Roethlisberger creating miracles with his feet and not taking sacks when other quarterbacks would. That, and this game was played without the secondary expertise of Darrelle Revis.
The Dolphins, on the other hand, looked FINtastic (you’re welcome, Vinny Ginardi) against the Raiders. Sadly, the Jets defense is far and away a better unit, with or without Revis, than Oakland. Reggis Bush is not going to have the same kind of room against the Jets to make the game-altering plays he did a week ago, and Ryan Tannehill is not going to have the same kind of comfort in the pocket. While I don’t expect the Jets to blow out the Dolphins by any means, I totally see them winning this one by some score like 17-13. That’s all they have to do to cover this spread.
The Pick: Jets
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) @ Minnesota Vikings
This is one of those games I’m surprised the spread is this low. I don’t think, at this point in the season, that truly believes the Vikings are only a touchdown worse than the 49ers. I think the gap between these two teams is much greater than this margin, especially considering Adrian Peterson reminded us last week that he may not be fully recovered just yet from his knee injury. As good as Christian Ponder looked against the Colts, San Francisco is going to pressure him like he’s never been pressured before, and that’s going to force some mistakes. Everything is clicking right now for the Niners, and I totally expect them to cover yet again.
The Pick: 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs @ New Orleans Saints (-8.5)
By far, no other 0-2 team will get a spread as big as the Saints have been given this week. It’s not because the Vegas odds makers are feeling a sudden turnaround from New Orleans. Instead, they see what we’ve all seen through two weeks.
The Chiefs defense is terrible. No team has allowed as many points through the first two games of the season as Kansas City, and now they have to go up against Drew Brees. Even while playing one of his worst games in the last couple of years, Brees still managed to keep the Saints in the game late and make some plays with both his arm and his feet. I don’t see the Chiefs getting the same kind of pressure on him like the Panthers did. I also don’t see New Orleans starting 0-3, with two of those games being at home.
I’m a little worried about this game, but you have to believe in the Saints offense much more than the Chiefs defense. Plain and simple.
The Pick: Saints
Cincinnati Bengals @ Washington Redskins (-4.5)
One of the more interesting match-ups of the week. It’s not going to command the headlines the Pats/Ravens game will, or even the Texans/Broncos. But, this game is going to be hotly contested. Each team has shown flashes of their potential to be one of the Wild Card teams coming from each conference. Of the two, however, the Redskins have looked better. But, that was with the services of Brian Orakpo and Adam Carricker. Neither will be in the line-up for this game, or for the rest of the season.
Had Josh Morgan not lost his cool in St. Louis last week, the Redskins easily could be 2-0. They played well enough to walk away winners in that game, even though they blew the lead in the second half. And anyone who thought Robert Griffin III wasn’t going to be able to back up his splendid first game, well, they were wrong, too. The Redskins are going to hang around the NFC East all season, and they’ll flirt with a potential playoff berth. As for the Bengals, they allowed Brandon Weeden to look like a competent quarterback, and Trent Richardson made some spectacular plays. While Alfred Morris is certainly not at the same level as Richardson, RGIII is. He’ll be the difference in this game, and that’s why I have confidence in the Redskins covering at home.
The Pick: Redskins
Detroit Lions (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans
The Titans are lucky that the Jacksonville Jaguars play in the NFL, and their division for that matter. Otherwise, Tennessee would be making a strong case for the worst team in the league right now. And while the Titans may not be the worst team, Chris Johnson is certainly the worst starting running back the league has to offer, and by an enormous margin. CJ2k can talk all he wants about being faster than Usain Bolt, but he can’t even outscore the likes of Curtis Brinkley right now in fantasy. Yeah.
The Lions are clearly the better team, but have admittedly underperformed against both the Rams and the 49ers to start their season. Still, if you’re not picking the Lions to win this match-up, you’re over-analyzing their early season struggles. This is one of the games I feel most confident about going into Week 3.
The Pick: Lions
To read the rest of the picks, click here

Just wanted to keep a public tally of our picks. Won't bother posting our record so far since there isn't an easy way to prove it. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise stated. Our picks are in bold.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Atlanta Falcons -6.5
San Diego Chargers Buffalo Bills -1.5
Tennessee Titans Cincinnati Bengals -6.5
Baltimore Ravens Cleveland Browns ML
Green Bay Packers Detroit Lions -1
Indianapolis Colts -6.5 Jacksonville Jaguars
Minnesota Vikings New Orleans Saints -10
Oakland Raiders New England Patriots -15
Houston Texans -2 New York Giants
Washington Redskins Philadelphia Eagles -6.5
Dallas Cowboys -1 St. Louis Rams
San Francisco 49ers -2.5 Arizona Cardinals
Kansas City Chiefs Miami Dolphins -4.5
Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks -4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers Carolina Panthers -3.5
Chicago Bears New York Jets -1

EDIT: Massive, embarrassing edit -- I'm 54-23 making picks ATS so far this season; no idea what I was thinking about / looking at when I wrote that. Wow.
See my comment history. Had another great week in my pool ATS -- went 10-3, keeping me way in first place at 54-23 (there's a $100 payout after Week 8, so I really want to hold on there). I will post later in the week about my pool picks.
I've already submitted two teasers for next week. Last week, I made three bets. One teaser and one straight-up ATS bet came through, and I lost another teaser (courtesy of the NY Giants). But I increased my cash in my sports book, so I have to call it a good week.
Teaser #1 (I laid down $10 to win $18):
GB (-9.5) over STL
PIT (-8) over JAX
CIN (-2) over IND
Rationale: GB & PIT at home against dreadful teams. They should both take care of business with double-digit wins. A little nervous, of course, about either of them slacking and winning by 7 only, but we'll see what happens. It's important for good teams to destroy bad teams at home at this point of the season (which is why NYG can no longer be considered "good"), and I think Rogers and Ben play with enough pride to get the job done. And with Cincy at home against the Colts, they too will take care of business, but it could be close. Cincy is NOT disappointing -- week after week, they cover, and I have to think they'll be up for this game, hopefully win by a field goal or more.
Teaser #2 (I laid down $10 to win $14.20):
CAR (+11) over ATL
OAK (+1.5) over CLE
NO (+3) over TB
Rationale: Carolina and Cam are covering MACHINES. Atlanta obviously isn't playing well. Look for them to play harder here, but Cam will still be able to cover a double-digit spread back-door. And believe that Cam wants to win games very badly, so he'll keep this game within a touchdown or so. Oakland should win against Cleveland outright rather handily. Cleveland is kind of mysterious to me, but Oakland is clearly good, and they're on a good roll, will be playing at home, honor Al Davis again I'm sure. They may win a close one, but they win. As for New Orleans, this one feels like a lock (which is why I should be scared). SF dominated TB the other day. I understand they're coming back home, but New Orleans is playing well (although they let Cam cover). I feel like they win outright, probably in a close game. But with this line (+3) I had to throw it in my teaser.
Any advice? I realize I'm not getting amazing values, I'm being very cautious, and I'm not laying a lot of money. I'm +$100 or so in my account right now, and when my Week 8 office pool pays out $100, that'll give me more to work with. Then I'll probably start making bigger, bolder bets. Right now I'm just trying to increase in chunks mostly with teasers, but please let me know if you have thoughts on this.